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Malveira vs Portimonense B - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Castillo D.
87'
Cintra T.
87'
Cintra T.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 game between Malveira and Portimonense B finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Malveira.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Malveira
20%
Draws
16%
Portimonense B
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Malveira

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Malveira carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Malveira are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Malveira Clean Sheet 68%
Portimonense B Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Malveira Portimonense B
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 11 7
Draws 11 4
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.31 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.64 0.70
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Portimonense B vs Malveira
0:3
Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Malveira vs Portimonense B
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Malveira Compare

Top Goalscorer Castillo D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.26
Avg xA / game 0.82

Portimonense B Compare

Avg xG / game 0.64
Avg xA / game 0.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Malveira 95 / 100
Portimonense B 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Malveira Portimonense B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malveira Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malveira scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Portimonense B let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Portimonense B's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Malveira VS Portimonense B
0.88 Goals Scored 0.4
1 Goals Conceded 2.4
75% Over 1.5 80%
38% Over 2.5 80%
0% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Malveira

(Home)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
06 Sept
Malveira
3 : 0
GD Os Nazarenos
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
16 Aug
Malveira
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
Page 1 of 7

Portimonense B

(Away)
18 Apr
Sintrense
2 : 1
Portimonense B
12 Apr
Portimonense B
1 : 3
Lagoa
04 Apr
Portimonense B
0 : 3
Malveira
29 Mar
Alverca B
4 : 0
Portimonense B
22 Mar
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0 : 0
Portimonense B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)