Sport Picks
Match Events
12'
12'
Aguilar Rosello P.
70'
70'
Aguilar Rosello P.
AI Match Summary
Arenas Armilla in this Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arenas Armilla.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
13%
35%
52%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arenas Armilla
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Arenas Armilla lately — more wins on the board than Mancha.
- 52% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Arenas Armilla have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Mancha Clean Sheet 22%
Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mancha | Arenas Armilla |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 6 | 14 |
| Draws | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.83 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 0.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Mancha
1:0
Mar 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Arenas Armilla
0:2
Oct 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Mancha
0:0
Feb 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Mancha
2:1
Sep 29, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs Arenas Armilla
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mancha Compare
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Arenas Armilla Compare
Top Goalscorer Aguilar Rosello P.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mancha 37 / 100
Arenas Armilla 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mancha Arenas Armilla
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Arenas Armilla Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Arenas Armilla conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Mancha scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.
Solid form: Mancha remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Mancha VS Arenas Armilla
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Mancha
(Home) 13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0 Mancha
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1 Marbelli
30 Aug
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 0 Mancha
10 May
CD Alhaurino
1 : 1 Mancha
03 May
Mancha
1 : 2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
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05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1 Marbelli
03 May
Mancha
1 : 2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
19 Apr
Mancha
2 : 1 Huetor Vega
05 Apr
Mancha
0 : 0 Melilla B
21 Mar
Mancha
1 : 0 Mijas Las Lagunas
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Arenas Armilla
(Away) 13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0 Mancha
06 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
0 : 2 Arenas Armilla
20 Jun
Pena Deportiva
5 : 2 Arenas Armilla
14 Jun
Arenas Armilla
1 : 1 Pena Deportiva
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1 Arenas Armilla
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06 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
0 : 2 Arenas Armilla
20 Jun
Pena Deportiva
5 : 2 Arenas Armilla
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1 Arenas Armilla
24 May
Torre del Mar
0 : 1 Arenas Armilla
10 May
UD San Pedro
2 : 1 Arenas Armilla
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 46:24 | 66 |
| 2 | Motril | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55:29 | 65 |
| 3 | Torre del Mar | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 37:26 | 55 |
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38:29 | 54 |
| 5 | Churriana de la Vega | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 32:40 | 52 |
| 6 | Marbelli | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36:28 | 51 |
| 7 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 39:38 | 50 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 39:37 | 49 |
| 9 | Atletico de Porcuna | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 41:39 | 46 |
| 10 | Huetor Vega | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 43:42 | 45 |
| 11 | Granada CF B | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 49:47 | 44 |
| 12 | CD Alhaurino | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 41:41 | 43 |
| 13 | Melilla B | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 30:32 | 39 |
| 14 | Mancha | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30:38 | 37 |
| 15 | Huetor Tajar | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 40:44 | 37 |
| 16 | Martos | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:48 | 37 |
| 17 | CD Torreperogil | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 24:45 | 33 |
| 18 | El Palo | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 28:53 | 27 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
