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Stadium Background

Mancha vs CD Baza

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 9 2009/2010
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mancha play CD Baza in the Tercera Division - Group 9 2009/2010. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mancha averaged 1.21 goals scored and 0.91 conceded. CD Baza averaged 0.81 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. In past meetings, Mancha won 2, CD Baza won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 1, 2011 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Mancha and 1.19 for CD Baza. This points to a Mancha double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Mancha
34%
Draws
26%
CD Baza
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Mancha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Mancha picked up more points recently compared to CD Baza.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
Mancha Clean Sheet 20%
CD Baza Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mancha CD Baza
Matches Played 43 32
Wins 15 9
Draws 13 7
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.21 0.81
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.41

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
CD Baza vs Mancha
0:0
Dec 8, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs CD Baza
1:1
Feb 7, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs CD Baza
3:0
Sep 27, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
CD Baza vs Mancha
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mancha 40 / 100
CD Baza 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mancha CD Baza

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mancha or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +22.1%
3.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mancha attacking → ← attacking CD Baza

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mancha scored in 65% of their last 43 games.

CD Baza let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Mancha went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

CD Baza lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

58 Points in last 5 34
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mancha36208853:2668
2Motril361812654:2466
3El Palo361961159:4463
4Almeria B361710962:3761
5CD Ronda361791064:5160
6Malaga B361611956:4459
7Comarca361761352:3457
8Ciudad de Vicar361314952:4853
9Loja3613101342:4049
10Antequera3611141143:3847
11Velez361451750:5247
12CD Alhaurino361291553:5445
13Adra361291547:5945
14Santa Fe361181740:5541
15UD Carboneras361081843:6338
16Huetor Tajar361152044:6738
17CD Baza369101736:5437
18Arenas Armilla36981933:6335
19Ejido 21973921:2224
20Vera CD19171117:4610