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Stadium Background

Mancha vs CP Almeria

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Navarro R.
90'
Mendes M. M.
90'
Mendes M. M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2024/2025 game between Mancha and CP Almeria finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mancha.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Mancha
30%
Draws
23%
CP Almeria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mancha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Mancha have managed 0.83 goals a game lately — CP Almeria are scoring more at 1.1.
  • Win probability leans Mancha's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Mancha here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Mancha Clean Sheet 68%
CP Almeria Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mancha CP Almeria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 7
Draws 8 2
Losses 15 21
Goals Scored 0.83 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.17 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs CP Almeria
1:0
Sep 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
CP Almeria vs Mancha
0:1
May 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
CP Almeria vs Mancha
1:2
Jan 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs CP Almeria
2:2
Mar 28, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs CP Almeria
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mancha Compare

Top Goalscorer Navarro R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

CP Almeria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mancha 50 / 100
CP Almeria 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mancha CP Almeria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mancha Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CP Almeria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Mancha's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

CP Almeria lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mancha VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mancha

(Home)
20 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
1 : 0
Mancha
13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Mancha
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Marbelli
30 Aug
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 0
Mancha
10 May
CD Alhaurino
1 : 1
Mancha
Page 1 of 6

CP Almeria

(Away)
11 May
CP Almeria
1 : 2
CD Torreperogil
04 May
Malaga Juniors
3 : 1
CP Almeria
01 May
CP Almeria
2 : 2
Marbelli
27 Apr
El Palo
3 : 0
CP Almeria
13 Apr
CP Almeria
0 : 1
Huetor Tajar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malaga B 34 26 5 3 76:22 83
2 Jaen 34 22 7 5 60:35 73
3 Motril 34 18 7 9 57:35 61
4 Torre del Mar 34 18 7 9 48:30 61
5 Huetor Tajar 34 17 6 11 35:28 57
6 Huetor Vega 34 16 9 9 49:36 57
7 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 14 12 8 53:35 54
8 CD Torreperogil 34 13 11 10 42:37 50
9 Mancha 34 13 7 14 37:39 46
10 Marbelli 34 11 9 14 32:42 42
11 El Palo 34 10 11 13 36:49 41
12 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 10 10 14 43:44 40
13 Arenas Armilla 34 9 11 14 40:49 38
14 Martos 34 11 5 18 28:41 38
15 Atletico de Porcuna 34 9 9 16 45:55 36
16 Ejido 34 7 6 21 36:68 27
17 CP Almeria 34 7 2 25 35:75 23
18 Malaga Juniors 34 5 6 23 31:63 21
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2024/2025 (Promotion - Play Offs)