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Manchester City U18 vs Derby U18

England England

Premier League U18 2025/2026
Manchester City U18 Logo

Manchester City U18

5 - 3
FT
Derby U18 Logo

Derby U18

Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Midwood K.
Assist: Samba T.
58' Event
Lamb T.
Assist: Parker X.
60' Event
Parker X.
Assist: Lamb T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Manchester City U18 in this Premier League U18 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Manchester City U18.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Manchester City U18
15%
Draws
27%
Derby U18
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Manchester City U18

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Manchester City U18 have won more games recently than Derby U18.
  • Win probability leans Manchester City U18's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League U18 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).
  • History favors Manchester City U18 here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Manchester City U18 Clean Sheet 10%
Derby U18 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manchester City U18 Derby U18
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 23 12
Draws 3 3
Losses 4 15
Goals Scored 3.6 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Premier League U18
Manchester City U18 vs Derby U18
5:3
Feb 28, 2026 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Manchester City U18
3:1
Apr 26, 2025 Premier League U18
Manchester City U18 vs Derby U18
4:3
Nov 9, 2024 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Manchester City U18
3:5
Jan 27, 2024 Premier League U18
Manchester City U18 vs Derby U18
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manchester City U18 Compare

Top Goalscorer Midwood K.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Lamb T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.07
Avg xA / game 1.34

Derby U18 Compare

Top Goalscorer Hodges D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Corry S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manchester City U18 83 / 100
Derby U18 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manchester City U18 Derby U18

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manchester City U18 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manchester City U18's goal record stands at 100% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Derby U18 has conceded goals in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 6.60 goals per match.

Manchester City U18 has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Manchester City U18 VS Derby U18
2.88 Goals Scored 1.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Manchester City U18

(Home)
19 Sept
Everton U18
0 : 6
Manchester City U18
12 Sept
Manchester City U18
4 : 1
Sunderland U18
05 Sept
Stoke City U18
5 : 8
Manchester City U18
29 Aug
Manchester City U18
5 : 1
Leeds U18
22 Aug
Manchester United U18
0 : 1
Manchester City U18
Page 1 of 6

Derby U18

(Away)
19 Sept
Derby U18
3 : 3
Liverpool U18
12 Sept
Stoke City U18
0 : 2
Derby U18
05 Sept
Derby U18
0 : 2
Nottingham U18
29 Aug
Middlesbrough U18
1 : 3
Derby U18
22 Aug
Derby U18
1 : 4
Burnley U18
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester City U18 26 19 3 4 96:39 60
2 Manchester United U18 26 18 2 6 65:24 56
3 Newcastle Utd U18 26 16 1 9 55:44 49
4 Everton U18 26 13 3 10 54:45 42
5 Nottingham U18 26 13 3 10 50:47 42
6 Sunderland U18 26 11 6 9 56:44 39
7 Middlesbrough U18 26 12 3 11 45:45 39
8 Liverpool U18 26 11 2 13 70:70 35
9 Blackburn U18 26 9 6 11 51:68 33
10 Derby U18 26 10 2 14 44:67 32
11 Burnley U18 26 9 3 14 49:68 30
12 Leeds U18 26 8 5 13 47:68 29
13 Wolves U18 26 5 5 16 29:55 20
14 Stoke City U18 26 5 2 19 42:69 17
Promotion - Premier League U18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chelsea U18 28 21 4 3 88:24 67
2 Tottenham U18 28 16 6 6 70:36 54
3 Aston Villa U18 28 17 3 8 82:55 54
4 Brighton U18 28 14 7 7 63:41 49
5 Crystal Palace U18 28 14 4 10 74:52 46
6 West Brom U18 28 14 4 10 68:50 46
7 Southampton U18 28 13 3 12 65:61 42
8 West Ham U18 28 13 2 13 62:59 41
9 Leicester U18 28 10 6 12 46:53 36
10 Arsenal U18 28 9 6 13 46:57 33
11 Fulham U18 28 9 6 13 48:65 33
12 Norwich U18 28 6 8 14 47:67 26
13 Reading U18 28 6 8 14 38:66 26
14 Birmingham U18 28 6 3 19 29:88 21
15 Ipswich U18 28 6 2 20 41:93 20
Promotion - Premier League U18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)