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Manchester United U18 vs Derby U18 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

FA Youth Cup
Manchester United U18 Logo

Manchester United U18

Fri, Jan 23, 2026
2 - 1
07:00 PM
Derby U18 Logo

Derby U18

Our Tip

Match Events

101' Event
Crolla L.
Own Goal
103' Event
Obi C.
112' Event
Nessling M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Manchester United U18
15%
Draws
31%
Derby U18
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Manchester United U18

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Manchester United U18 lately — more wins on the board than Derby U18.
  • Win probability leans Manchester United U18's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Manchester United U18 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Manchester United U18, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).
  • Manchester United U18 have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Manchester United U18 Clean Sheet 15%
Derby U18 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manchester United U18 Derby U18
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 21 12
Draws 2 3
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 2.53 1.83
Goals Conceded 0.93 2.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2026 Premier League U18
Manchester United U18 vs Derby U18
6:1
Jan 23, 2026 FA Youth Cup
Manchester United U18 vs Derby U18
2:1
Aug 30, 2025 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Manchester United U18
0:4
Apr 18, 2025 Premier League U18
Manchester United U18 vs Derby U18
4:3
Mar 8, 2025 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Manchester United U18
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manchester United U18 Compare

Top Goalscorer Obi C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Derby U18 Compare

Top Goalscorer Nessling M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manchester United U18 84 / 100
Derby U18 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manchester United U18 Derby U18

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manchester United U18 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manchester United U18 found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Derby U18's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Manchester United U18 remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Manchester United U18 VS Derby U18
2.13 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Manchester United U18

(Home)
19 Sept
Manchester United U18
6 : 0
Wolves U18
12 Sept
Newcastle Utd U18
0 : 2
Manchester United U18
05 Sept
Manchester United U18
5 : 0
Middlesbrough U18
29 Aug
Everton U18
0 : 3
Manchester United U18
22 Aug
Manchester United U18
0 : 1
Manchester City U18
Page 1 of 6

Derby U18

(Away)
19 Sept
Derby U18
3 : 3
Liverpool U18
12 Sept
Stoke City U18
0 : 2
Derby U18
05 Sept
Derby U18
0 : 2
Nottingham U18
29 Aug
Middlesbrough U18
1 : 3
Derby U18
22 Aug
Derby U18
1 : 4
Burnley U18
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Reading U18 2
Chelsea U18 3
Manchester City U18 5
Arsenal U18 2
Everton U18 3
West Ham U18 2
Bromley U18 1
Ipswich U18 2
Leeds U18 1
Swansea U18 2
Coventry U18 1
Blackburn U18 8
Norwich U18 1
Burnley U18 5
Watford U18 1
Charlton U18 3
Oxford Utd U18 2
Colchester U18 1
Manchester United U18 2
Derby U18 1
Sunderland U18 4
West Brom U18 3
QPR U18 0
Brighton U18 2
Fleetwood Town U18 2
Aston Villa U18 3
Southend U18 1
Wrexham U18 3
Bolton U18 1
Stevenage U18 3
Newcastle Utd U18 0
Crystal Palace U18 4
1/8-finals
Chelsea U18 1
Manchester City U18 4
Everton U18 4
Ipswich U18 2
Swansea U18 0
Blackburn U18 2
Burnley U18 2
Charlton U18 0
Oxford Utd U18 1
Manchester United U18 4
Sunderland U18 4
Brighton U18 1
Aston Villa U18 1
Wrexham U18 0
Stevenage U18 1
Crystal Palace U18 2
Quarter-finals
Manchester City U18 3
Everton U18 0
Blackburn U18 2
Burnley U18 1
Manchester United U18 3
Sunderland U18 2
Aston Villa U18 2
Crystal Palace U18 3
Semi-finals
Manchester City U18 4
Blackburn U18 1
Manchester United U18 2
Crystal Palace U18 1
Final
Manchester City U18 2
Manchester United U18 1