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Manly Utd vs Wollongong - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Australia Australia

NPL NSW Cromer Park, Sydney
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Yamamura K.

AI Match Summary

Wollongong in this NPL NSW matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Wollongong.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Manly Utd
15%
Draws
34%
Wollongong
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Manly Utd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Manly Utd lately — more wins on the board than Wollongong.
  • Win probability leans Manly Utd's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular NPL NSW form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Manly Utd Clean Sheet 18%
Wollongong Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manly Utd Wollongong
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 11
Draws 8 5
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.32 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 NPL NSW
Wollongong vs Manly Utd
0:4
May 16, 2026 NPL NSW
Manly Utd vs Wollongong
0:1
Jul 19, 2025 NPL NSW
Wollongong vs Manly Utd
2:0
Apr 6, 2025 NPL NSW
Manly Utd vs Wollongong
6:0
Aug 25, 2024 NPL NSW
Wollongong vs Manly Utd
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manly Utd Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Wollongong Compare

Top Goalscorer Yamamura K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manly Utd 67 / 100
Wollongong 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manly Utd Wollongong

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manly Utd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Manly Utd found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Wollongong conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Manly Utd has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Manly Utd VS Wollongong
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Manly Utd

(Home)
06 Sept
Sydney Utd
3 : 1
Manly Utd
02 Sept
Sutherland Sharks
1 : 2
Manly Utd
30 Aug
Wollongong
0 : 4
Manly Utd
22 Aug
UNSW
0 : 2
Manly Utd
15 Aug
Manly Utd
0 : 4
NWS Spirit
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Wollongong

(Away)
30 Aug
Wollongong
0 : 4
Manly Utd
23 Aug
Wollongong
3 : 0
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
16 Aug
Rockdale Ilinden
1 : 2
Wollongong
09 Aug
Wollongong
1 : 2
Sydney Utd
01 Aug
Sutherland Sharks
2 : 1
Wollongong
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 APIA Leichhardt 30 21 5 4 66:35 68
2 Sydney Utd 30 20 4 6 47:20 64
3 Marconi Stallions 30 19 5 6 50:22 62
4 Sutherland Sharks 30 14 4 12 46:38 46
5 Manly Utd 30 12 8 10 39:35 44
6 NWS Spirit 30 12 5 13 37:38 41
7 SD Raiders 30 12 5 13 44:49 41
8 Sydney FC U23 30 11 8 11 38:43 41
9 Rockdale Ilinden 30 12 4 14 46:44 40
10 Western Sydney Wanderers U21 30 11 5 14 55:49 38
11 Wollongong 30 11 5 14 35:43 38
12 St. George City 30 10 7 13 30:46 37
13 Blacktown City 30 9 8 13 43:46 35
14 UNSW 30 9 5 16 38:49 32
15 St George Saints 30 8 3 19 28:55 27
16 Sydney Olympic 30 6 5 19 32:62 23
Promotion - NPL NSW (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL NSW (Play Offs)
Relegation - NPL NSW (Relegation)
Relegation - NSW League One 2027 (Main)