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Manta vs America de Quito

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B 2023 Estadio Jocay
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Manta play America de Quito in the Serie B 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Manta averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.51 conceded. America de Quito averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. In past meetings, Manta won 1, America de Quito won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Sep 20, 2023 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.92 for Manta and 1.13 for America de Quito. This points to a America de Quito double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Manta
35%
Draws
37%
America de Quito
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: America de Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Manta picked up more points recently compared to America de Quito.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Manta Clean Sheet 21%
America de Quito Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manta America de Quito
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 8 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 19 12
Goals Scored 0.86 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.51 1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2023 Serie B
America de Quito vs Manta
5:1
Aug 1, 2023 Serie B
Manta vs America de Quito
1:1
May 25, 2023 Serie B
America de Quito vs Manta
1:1
Mar 29, 2023 Serie B
Manta vs America de Quito
1:0
Sep 22, 2022 Serie B
America de Quito vs Manta
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manta Compare

Top Goalscorer Ledesma A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

America de Quito Compare

Top Goalscorer Folleco J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manta 29 / 100
America de Quito 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manta America de Quito

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: America de Quito or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Manta attacking → ← attacking America de Quito

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manta scored in 60% of their last 35 games.

America de Quito let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Manta went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

America de Quito lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 38
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Macara361810847:3464
2Imbabura361513858:4358
3Vinotinto361413954:3955
4Manta3614101239:3752
5Independiente Juniors3613121140:4051
6Nueve de Octubre361281648:4844
7Vargas Torres3610141227:3444
8Chacaritas361271744:4743
9America de Quito3611101546:5843
10Buhos ULVR365151630:5330