Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Manthiqueira vs Itaqua

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Manthiqueira play Itaqua in the Paulista B. Itaqua are favorites here. Recently, Manthiqueira averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. Itaqua averaged 2.38 goals scored and 0.62 conceded. In past meetings, Manthiqueira won 0, Itaqua won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 6, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Manthiqueira and 1.88 for Itaqua. This points to a Itaqua double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Manthiqueira
15%
Draws
61%
Itaqua
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Itaqua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Manthiqueira picked up more points recently compared to Itaqua.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Manthiqueira Clean Sheet 10%
Itaqua Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manthiqueira Itaqua
Matches Played 30 13
Wins 10 11
Draws 4 1
Losses 16 1
Goals Scored 1.4 2.38
Goals Conceded 2.03 0.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Paulista B
Manthiqueira vs Itaqua
0:2
May 3, 2026 Paulista B
Itaqua vs Manthiqueira
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Manthiqueira Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Itaqua Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martins M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manthiqueira 24 / 100
Itaqua 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manthiqueira Itaqua

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itaqua Win (2)
Secondary Pick Itaqua & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Manthiqueira attacking → ← attacking Itaqua

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Manthiqueira scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Itaqua let in goals in 54% of their last 13 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Manthiqueira went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Itaqua lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 34
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Jose Bonifacio EC1064017:622
2America SP1054113:719
3Assisense1035217:1514
4Tupa1041514:1613
5Riopretano101459:167
6Santa Fe SP1020810:206
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independente SP1080237:724
2Matonense1071228:1022
3Sao Carlos1043319:1115
4Santacruzense1042419:1314
5Mogi Mirim1040615:1512
6Catanduvense1000104:660
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Flamengo SP1072113:623
2Paulinense105059:1615
3Audax-SP1051415:913
4Paulinia FU1031611:1410
5Votoraty SP1021712:197
6Guarulhos1051419:154
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Itaqua1081121:625
2Maua FC1044220:1516
3Uniao Mogi1052314:1314
4Manthiqueira1042417:1714
5Mauaense1033410:1012
6Barcelona SP1000105:260