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Manthiqueira vs Penapolense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4 2022
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AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 2022 game between Manthiqueira and Penapolense finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Manthiqueira.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Manthiqueira
30%
Draws
42%
Penapolense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penapolense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Manthiqueira come out ahead of Penapolense on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Manthiqueira Clean Sheet 10%
Penapolense Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manthiqueira Penapolense
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 4 13
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 1.6 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.89 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2022 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Manthiqueira
5:0
Jul 16, 2022 Paulista A4
Manthiqueira vs Penapolense
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manthiqueira 34 / 100
Penapolense 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manthiqueira Penapolense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penapolense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Manthiqueira scored in 71% of their last 35 games.

Defensive concern: Penapolense conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Manthiqueira has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Manthiqueira VS Penapolense
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Manthiqueira

(Home)
05 Jul
Jose Bonifacio EC
2 : 1
Manthiqueira
27 Jun
Manthiqueira
0 : 2
Jose Bonifacio EC
20 Jun
Manthiqueira
2 : 1
Mauaense
14 Jun
Barcelona SP
1 : 5
Manthiqueira
06 Jun
Manthiqueira
0 : 2
Itaqua
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Penapolense

(Away)
09 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1
Penapolense
06 May
Penapolense
2 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
02 May
Sao Caetano
2 : 2
Penapolense
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1
Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 2
Taquaritinga
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sao-Carlense 6 5 1 0 12:4 16
2 Penapolense 6 2 2 2 13:9 8
3 Paulista 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
4 Manthiqueira 6 1 1 4 5:15 4
Promotion - Paulista A4 2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gremio Prudente 6 4 2 0 12:4 14
2 XV de Jau 6 4 0 2 9:7 12
3 Maua FC 6 1 2 3 4:8 5
4 Rio Branco SP 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Paulista A4 2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo SP 6 5 1 0 9:2 16
2 Inter de Bebedouro 6 2 2 2 7:5 8
3 Jacarei FC 6 1 2 3 4:8 5
4 Taquaritinga 6 1 1 4 3:8 4
Promotion - Paulista A4 2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Itapirense 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
2 AA Itarare 6 2 3 1 10:8 9
3 Catanduva FC 6 1 4 1 13:11 7
4 SKA Brasil 6 0 2 4 8:15 2
Promotion - Paulista A4 2022 (Play Offs)