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Mantova vs Monza

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Dembele A.
23' Event
Kouda R.
Assist: Trimboli S.
28'
Petagna A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Mantova and Monza finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mantova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Mantova
15%
Draws
45%
Monza
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Monza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Monza come out ahead of Mantova on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mantova's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Mantova Clean Sheet 68%
Monza Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mantova Monza
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 17
Draws 5 8
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 1.71 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Serie B
Mantova vs Monza
3:2
Aug 23, 2025 Serie B
Monza vs Mantova
1:0
Mar 14, 2015 Serie C - Group A
Monza vs Mantova
0:1
Oct 25, 2014 Serie C - Group A
Mantova vs Monza
0:0
Mar 23, 2014 Lega Pro C2/A
Mantova vs Monza
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mantova Compare

Top Goalscorer Kouda R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mancuso L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Monza Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucchesi L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mota D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mantova 95 / 100
Monza 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mantova Monza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mantova Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mantova scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Mantova remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Monza's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mantova VS Monza
2.38 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mantova

(Home)
09 Aug
Mantova
0 : 1
Carpi
06 Aug
Legnago Salus
1 : 3
Mantova
30 Jul
Mantova
6 : 2
Alcione Milano
26 Jul
Mantova
7 : 0
Ambrosiana
08 May
Frosinone
5 : 0
Mantova
Page 1 of 6

Monza

(Away)
14 Aug
Monza
3 : 0
Avellino
07 Aug
Monza
3 : 3
Padova
04 Aug
Monza
4 : 2
AC Milan U23
30 Jul
Monza
1 : 3
Aris
24 Jul
Galatasaray
0 : 2
Monza
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)