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Manukau United vs Mt Albert Ponsonby

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2018
Sat, Jul 21, 2018
3 - 1
02:00 AM
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Manukau United advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Manukau United
25%
Draws
35%
Mt Albert Ponsonby
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Manukau United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Manukau United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Manukau United have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Manukau United, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 100%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 100%
Over 3.5 Goals 80%
Over 4.5 Goals 36%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 85.4%
Manukau United Clean Sheet 13%
Mt Albert Ponsonby Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Manukau United Mt Albert Ponsonby
Matches Played 5 1
Wins 1 0
Draws 0 0
Losses 4 1
Goals Scored 1.2 1
Goals Conceded 2.4 3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.10 1.70
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 21, 2018 Chatham Cup
Manukau United vs Mt Albert Ponsonby
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Manukau United 31 / 100
Mt Albert Ponsonby 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Manukau United Mt Albert Ponsonby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mt Albert Ponsonby Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Manukau United scored in 80% of their last 5 outings.

Mt Albert Ponsonby let in goals in 100% of their last 1 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Manukau United stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Manukau United VS Mt Albert Ponsonby
1.2 Goals Scored 1
2.4 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
60% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Manukau United

(Home)
05 Jul
Manukau United
1 : 3
Eastern Suburbs
02 Apr
Auckland City
3 : 1
Manukau United
06 Jul
Bay Olympic
3 : 0
Manukau United
04 Aug
Manukau United
1 : 2
Cashmere Technical
21 Jul
Manukau United
3 : 1
Mt Albert Ponsonby

Mt Albert Ponsonby

(Away)
21 Jul
Manukau United
3 : 1
Mt Albert Ponsonby

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Manukau United 3
Mt Albert Ponsonby 1
Cashmere Technical 2
Roslyn Wakari 0
Melville 1
Onehunga 3
North Wellington 1
Western Suburbs 4
Wairarapa United 2
Stop Out SC 1
Birkenhead 4
Western Springs 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 1
Green Island AFC 0
Central United 0
East Coast 5
Quarter-finals
Manukau United 1
Cashmere Technical 2
Onehunga 1
Western Suburbs 4
Wairarapa United 1
Birkenhead 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 1
East Coast 0
Semi-finals
Cashmere Technical 2
Western Suburbs 3
Birkenhead 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 0
Final
Western Suburbs 1
Birkenhead 2