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Mara Sugar vs Migori - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mara Sugar host Migori in the Premier League. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Mara Sugar have averaged 0.96 scored and 0.96 conceded recently, against Migori's 1.58 scored and 0.67 conceded. Past meetings favor Mara Sugar slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 9, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (0.32 xG vs 0.63) point toward Migori. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Mara Sugar
20%
Draws
61%
Migori
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Migori

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Migori have won more games recently than Mara Sugar.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Mara Sugar taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Mara Sugar Clean Sheet 20%
Migori Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mara Sugar Migori
Matches Played 24 24
Wins 8 16
Draws 9 4
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 0.96 1.58
Goals Conceded 0.96 0.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.32 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Premier League
Mara Sugar vs Migori
0:0
Apr 24, 2024 Super League
Migori vs Mara Sugar
0:1
Sep 24, 2023 Super League
Mara Sugar vs Migori
1:1
May 10, 2023 Super League
Migori vs Mara Sugar
2:1
Jan 15, 2023 Super League
Mara Sugar vs Migori
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mara Sugar 42 / 100
Migori 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mara Sugar Migori

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mara Sugar's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 24 recent games.

Defensive concern: Migori conceded in 54% of 24 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Mara Sugar stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mara Sugar VS Migori
0.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
13% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mara Sugar

(Home)
31 May
Muranga
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0
Mahia
16 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 1
Mathare United
13 May
Mara Sugar
1 : 0
Shabana
09 May
Leopards
2 : 1
Mara Sugar
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Migori

(Away)
13 Jun
3K FC
1 : 1
Migori
07 Jun
Migori
2 : 1
Equity Bank
01 Jun
Kisumu All-Stars
0 : 1
Migori
27 May
Migori
2 : 1
MCF
23 May
Migori
1 : 0
Kibera
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mathare United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Ulinzi Stars 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Tusker 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mahia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Leopards 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 KCB 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Posta Rangers 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Bandari 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Kakamega Homeboyz 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Police FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Migori 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Shabana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 APS Bomet 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Muranga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Mombasa United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Mara Sugar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Nairobi United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 3K FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)