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Maracaju vs Sao Gabriel MS - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025
Maracaju Logo

Maracaju

1 - 0
FT
Sao Gabriel MS Logo

Sao Gabriel MS

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025 game between Maracaju and Sao Gabriel MS finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maracaju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Maracaju
30%
Draws
16%
Sao Gabriel MS
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maracaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maracaju come out ahead of Sao Gabriel MS on wins alone.
  • Model gives Maracaju a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Maracaju Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Gabriel MS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maracaju Sao Gabriel MS
Matches Played 21 17
Wins 6 2
Draws 8 4
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.14 0.71
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.71 1.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Sao Gabriel MS vs Maracaju
1:1
Aug 31, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Maracaju vs Sao Gabriel MS
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maracaju 40 / 100
Sao Gabriel MS 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maracaju Sao Gabriel MS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maracaju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Sao Gabriel MS conceded in 88% of 17 recent games.

Maracaju found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (21 games).

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Solid form: Maracaju remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Maracaju VS Sao Gabriel MS
1.29 Goals Scored 0.75
1.71 Goals Conceded 2.13
86% Over 1.5 100%
57% Over 2.5 63%
43% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maracaju

(Home)
01 Nov
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
6 : 0
Maracaju
26 Oct
Maracaju
3 : 1
Comercial MS
18 Oct
Bataguassu
3 : 1
Maracaju
11 Oct
Maracaju
3 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
05 Oct
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 1
Maracaju
Page 1 of 5

Sao Gabriel MS

(Away)
02 Aug
7 de Setembro
4 : 0
Sao Gabriel MS
27 Jul
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
2 : 2
Sao Gabriel MS
20 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 2
Aquidauanense
11 Jul
Misto
0 : 0
Sao Gabriel MS
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bataguassu 10 7 2 1 27:9 23
2 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana 10 7 2 1 23:7 23
3 Maracaju 10 4 4 2 12:13 16
4 Comercial MS 10 2 4 4 12:17 10
5 Esporte Clube Taveiropolis 10 2 0 8 11:25 6
6 Sao Gabriel MS 10 1 2 7 6:20 5
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