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Maracena vs Arenas Armilla

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Martinez I.
61' Event
Utrilla A.
67'
Moleon M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024 game between Maracena and Arenas Armilla finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arenas Armilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Maracena
35%
Draws
37%
Arenas Armilla
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arenas Armilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arenas Armilla come out ahead of Maracena on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Maracena Clean Sheet 20%
Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maracena Arenas Armilla
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 4 15
Draws 13 9
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 0.83 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.52 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Maracena vs Arenas Armilla
1:2
Dec 2, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Maracena
1:0
Apr 16, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Maracena
3:0
Dec 11, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Maracena vs Arenas Armilla
1:1
May 13, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Maracena vs Arenas Armilla
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maracena Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Arenas Armilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Utrilla A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maracena 36 / 100
Arenas Armilla 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maracena Arenas Armilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arenas Armilla Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Arenas Armilla conceded in 61% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Maracena remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Maracena scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maracena VS Arenas Armilla
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maracena

(Home)
27 Sept
Maracena
1 : 1
Tavernes
28 Oct
Maracena
0 : 5
Valencia
04 Oct
Maracena
2 : 0
Sporting Ceuta
27 Sept
Sporting Ceuta
1 : 1
Maracena
12 May
Maracena
1 : 1
CD Torreperogil
Page 1 of 6

Arenas Armilla

(Away)
27 Sept
Arenas Armilla
3 : 3
Huetor Vega
20 Sept
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Mancha
06 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
0 : 2
Arenas Armilla
20 Jun
Pena Deportiva
5 : 2
Arenas Armilla
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Torremolinos 34 23 7 4 65:23 76
2 Jaen 34 22 7 5 66:28 73
3 Malaga B 34 19 10 5 54:20 67
4 Almeria B 34 19 10 5 75:28 67
5 Torre del Mar 34 18 8 8 44:30 62
6 Motril 34 13 11 10 36:23 50
7 Arenas Armilla 34 14 6 14 34:39 48
8 CP Almeria 34 11 13 10 39:37 46
9 Huetor Vega 34 13 7 14 40:41 46
10 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 11 10 13 46:46 43
11 Mancha 34 9 12 13 41:43 39
12 CD Torreperogil 34 9 11 14 32:41 38
13 Ejido 34 7 16 11 30:41 37
14 Huetor Tajar 34 7 14 13 25:39 35
15 Malaga Juniors 34 7 12 15 27:47 33
16 Maracena 34 6 13 15 29:50 31
17 Rincon 34 6 10 18 30:54 28
18 Atletico Melilla 34 0 7 27 18:101 4
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2023/2024 (Play Offs)