Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maranhao vs Ceara

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Lucca
34' Event
Fernandinho
37'
Lucas Santos

AI Match Summary

Ceara in this Copa do Nordeste tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Maranhao
28%
Draws
22%
Ceara
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Maranhao haven't matched Ceara's recent run of results.
  • Maranhao are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Ceara arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ceara, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 20%
Ceara Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maranhao Ceara
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 9 13
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Maranhao vs Ceara
1:3
Mar 12, 2026 Copa Betano do Brasil
Maranhao vs Ceara
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maranhao Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucca
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maranhao 49 / 100
Ceara 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maranhao Ceara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 33 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Maranhao has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Maranhao scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maranhao VS Ceara
0.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
25% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maranhao

(Home)
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
12 Jul
Maranhao
2 : 1
Ypiranga FC
04 Jul
Maranhao
0 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
28 Jun
Ituano
0 : 0
Maranhao
21 Jun
Maranhao
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
Page 1 of 6

Ceara

(Away)
26 Jul
Sao Bernardo
3 : 4
Ceara
22 Jul
Ceara
0 : 1
CRB
17 Jul
America MG
1 : 1
Ceara
13 Jul
Ceara
0 : 0
Athletic Club
04 Jul
Goias
2 : 0
Ceara
Page 1 of 7