Sport Picks

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Maranhao vs Ceara

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Lucca
34' Event
Fernandinho
37'
Lucas Santos

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-3. This leg finished 1-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Maranhao
20%
Draws
33%
Ceara
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Maranhao haven't matched Ceara's recent run of results.
  • Maranhao are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Ceara arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ceara, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 20%
Ceara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maranhao Ceara
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 9 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 0.9 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.52 0.92
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Maranhao vs Ceara
1:3
Mar 12, 2026 Copa Betano do Brasil
Maranhao vs Ceara
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maranhao Compare

Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.76

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucca
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maranhao 76 / 100
Ceara 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maranhao Ceara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maranhao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 35 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Maranhao has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Maranhao scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maranhao VS Ceara
1.67 Goals Scored 1
0.83 Goals Conceded 1.38
67% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 25%
17% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maranhao

(Home)
29 Aug
Figueirense
2 : 1
Maranhao
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Maranhao
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
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Ceara

(Away)
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
10 Sept
Atletico GO
2 : 1
Ceara
05 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Sport Recife
30 Aug
Vila Nova FC
2 : 0
Ceara
22 Aug
Ceara
2 : 1
Londrina
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