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Maranhao vs Chapadinha - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Maranhense 2024
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Match Events

54' Event
Capote

AI Match Summary

The Maranhense 2024 game between Maranhao and Chapadinha finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maranhao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Maranhao
20%
Draws
7%
Chapadinha
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maranhao come out ahead of Chapadinha on wins alone.
  • Model gives Maranhao a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Maranhense 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Maranhao have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 68%
Chapadinha Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maranhao Chapadinha
Matches Played 54 21
Wins 22 4
Draws 13 4
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 1.24 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.02 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2024 Maranhense
Maranhao vs Chapadinha
1:0
Jan 13, 2024 Maranhense
Chapadinha vs Maranhao
0:2
Feb 2, 2023 Maranhense
Maranhao vs Chapadinha
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maranhao Compare

Top Goalscorer Capote
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Chapadinha Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maranhao 95 / 100
Chapadinha 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maranhao Chapadinha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maranhao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapadinha has conceded goals in 90% of their last 21 outings.

Maranhao scored in 63% of their last 54 games.

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Maranhao stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maranhao VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
2.25 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maranhao

(Home)
29 Aug
Figueirense
2 : 1
Maranhao
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Maranhao
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
Page 1 of 11

Chapadinha

(Away)
02 Apr
Pinheiro
1 : 1
Chapadinha
27 Mar
Chapadinha
0 : 3
Sampaio Correa
24 Mar
Tuntum
5 : 4
Chapadinha
16 Mar
Imperatriz
1 : 0
Chapadinha
03 Mar
Chapadinha
0 : 1
Moto Club
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maranhao 14 9 4 1 27:9 31
2 Sampaio Correa 14 8 4 2 24:13 28
3 Imperatriz 14 7 4 3 17:12 25
4 Moto Club 14 4 5 5 15:20 17
5 Pinheiro 14 2 8 4 20:19 14
6 Tuntum 14 5 4 5 19:23 13
7 Chapadinha 14 2 3 9 11:23 9
8 Cordino EC 14 1 4 9 14:28 7
Promotion - Maranhense 2024 (Play Offs)