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Maranhao vs Tuntum

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense Estádio Governador João Castelo, São Luís
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Vagalume
60' Event
Patrick Carvalho
82' Event
Martins R.

AI Match Summary

Maranhao in this Maranhense matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maranhao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Maranhao
35%
Draws
24%
Tuntum
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Tuntum haven't matched Maranhao's recent run of results.
  • 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 68%
Tuntum Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maranhao Tuntum
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 8 10
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.88 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2026 Maranhense
Maranhao vs Tuntum
3:1
Apr 2, 2025 Maranhense
Tuntum vs Maranhao
1:0
Mar 21, 2025 Maranhense
Maranhao vs Tuntum
1:0
Apr 11, 2024 Maranhense
Maranhao vs Tuntum
3:1
Apr 7, 2024 Maranhense
Tuntum vs Maranhao
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maranhao Compare

Top Goalscorer Vagalume
1 Goals
Assists Leader Patrick Carvalho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Tuntum Compare

Top Goalscorer Martins R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maranhao 41 / 100
Tuntum 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maranhao Tuntum

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maranhao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tuntum's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Maranhao remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Maranhao scored in 50% of their last 34 games.

Scoring Trends

Maranhao VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
2.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maranhao

(Home)
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Maranhao
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
12 Jul
Maranhao
2 : 1
Ypiranga FC
04 Jul
Maranhao
0 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
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Tuntum

(Away)
11 Feb
Tuntum
1 : 2
Imperatriz
07 Feb
Imperatriz
2 : 2
Tuntum
01 Feb
Moto Club
2 : 2
Tuntum
28 Jan
Tuntum
1 : 1
Sampaio Correa
25 Jan
ITZ Sport
0 : 2
Tuntum
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moto Club 7 3 4 0 10:4 13
2 Maranhao 7 4 1 2 9:7 13
3 Sampaio Correa 7 2 5 0 13:5 11
4 IAPE 7 3 2 2 4:3 11
5 Luminense 7 3 1 3 6:6 10
6 Tuntum 7 2 3 2 8:9 9
7 Imperatriz 7 1 3 3 2:5 6
8 ITZ Sport 7 0 1 6 1:14 1
Promotion - Maranhense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Maranhense (Relegation)
Relegation - Maranhense 2 2027 (Main)