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Marathon vs Olimpia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Dibble N.
36'
Cuello E.
36'
Paguada D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional game between Marathon and Olimpia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marathon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Marathon
15%
Draws
54%
Olimpia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Olimpia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Olimpia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Marathon a 31% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Marathon Clean Sheet 68%
Olimpia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marathon Olimpia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 20
Draws 6 3
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.18 2.18
Goals Conceded 0.96 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olimpia
1:0
May 16, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olimpia
1:0
May 7, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
2:0
Apr 23, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
2:1
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olimpia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Figueroa H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Olimpia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marathon 50 / 100
Olimpia 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marathon Olimpia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marathon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marathon's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Olimpia conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Marathon remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Marathon VS Olimpia
2.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marathon

(Home)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
Page 1 of 6

Olimpia

(Away)
20 Sept
Olimpia
4 : 0
Atletico Independiente
18 Sept
Olimpia
3 : 0
Luis Angel Firpo
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Luis Angel Firpo
0 : 3
Olimpia
04 Sept
Olimpia
4 : 1
Platense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 13:4 18
2 Olimpia 8 5 2 1 19:7 17
3 Marathon 8 5 2 1 14:6 17
4 Motagua 8 4 1 3 11:8 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 8:19 6
12 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)