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Marbelli vs CD Alhaurino

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Tome A.
43' Event
Caturla F.
89' Event
Corral Tapia M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between Marbelli and CD Alhaurino finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marbelli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Marbelli
30%
Draws
19%
CD Alhaurino
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marbelli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • CD Alhaurino haven't matched Marbelli's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Marbelli's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Marbelli Clean Sheet 68%
CD Alhaurino Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marbelli CD Alhaurino
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 8 9
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.17 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs CD Alhaurino
2:1
Sep 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
CD Alhaurino vs Marbelli
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marbelli Compare

Top Goalscorer Caturla F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Corral Tapia M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

CD Alhaurino Compare

Top Goalscorer Tome A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marbelli 95 / 100
CD Alhaurino 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marbelli CD Alhaurino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marbelli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marbelli has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Marbelli found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

CD Alhaurino let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Marbelli VS CD Alhaurino
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Marbelli

(Home)
27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0
Torre del Mar
20 Sept
Huetor Vega
1 : 3
Marbelli
13 Sept
Marbelli
2 : 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Marbelli
10 May
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
0 : 2
Marbelli
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CD Alhaurino

(Away)
27 Sept
Motril
2 : 0
CD Alhaurino
20 Sept
CD Alhaurino
2 : 1
Churriana de la Vega
13 Sept
Almeria B
2 : 0
CD Alhaurino
06 Sept
CD Alhaurino
0 : 0
Granada CF B
10 May
CD Alhaurino
1 : 1
Mancha
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 19 9 6 46:24 66
2 Motril 34 18 11 5 55:29 65
3 Torre del Mar 34 14 13 7 37:26 55
4 Arenas Armilla 34 15 9 10 38:29 54
5 Churriana de la Vega 34 14 10 10 32:40 52
6 Marbelli 34 14 9 11 36:28 51
7 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 13 11 10 39:38 50
8 UD San Pedro 34 13 10 11 39:37 49
9 Atletico de Porcuna 34 14 4 16 41:39 46
10 Huetor Vega 34 12 9 13 43:42 45
11 Granada CF B 34 10 14 10 49:47 44
12 CD Alhaurino 34 11 10 13 41:41 43
13 Melilla B 34 9 12 13 30:32 39
14 Mancha 34 9 10 15 30:38 37
15 Huetor Tajar 34 9 10 15 40:44 37
16 Martos 34 9 10 15 32:48 37
17 CD Torreperogil 34 9 6 19 24:45 33
18 El Palo 34 6 9 19 28:53 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)