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Marcilio Dias vs Barra FC (Santa Catarina)

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Geovany Soares
7'
Pinheiro C.
29'
Vava Franca

AI Match Summary

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) in this Catarinense matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Barra FC (Santa Catarina).

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Marcilio Dias
20%
Draws
38%
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marcilio Dias

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Marcilio Dias have won more games recently than Barra FC (Santa Catarina).
  • Model gives Marcilio Dias a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Marcilio Dias Clean Sheet 20%
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marcilio Dias Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.38 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 22, 2026 Catarinense
Marcilio Dias vs Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
0:1
Oct 12, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Marcilio Dias vs Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
6:0
Sep 10, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) vs Marcilio Dias
0:6
Jul 14, 2025 Serie D
Marcilio Dias vs Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1:0
May 3, 2025 Serie D
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) vs Marcilio Dias
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marcilio Dias Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Barra FC (Santa Catarina) Compare

Top Goalscorer Geovany Soares
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marcilio Dias 42 / 100
Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marcilio Dias Barra FC (Santa Catarina)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Marcilio Dias found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Barra FC (Santa Catarina) conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Marcilio Dias went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marcilio Dias VS Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brusque63309:612
2Avai63128:710
3Camboriu62318:69
4Concordia62135:107
5Marcilio Dias62046:66
6Joinville60153:141
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Santa Catarina633010:512
2Chapecoense-SC632111:511
3Criciuma632110:811
4Barra FC (Santa Catarina)63038:59
5Figueirense62136:87
6Carlos Renaux61144:84