Sport Picks
Match Events
8'
8'
Wesley
30'
30'
Caio Hones
38'
38'
Cesinha
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-2. This leg finished 4-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
15%
45%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hercilio Luz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Hercilio Luz have won more games recently than Marcilio Dias.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Hercilio Luz arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Marcilio Dias, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Marcilio Dias Clean Sheet 68%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marcilio Dias | Hercilio Luz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 16 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 Copa Santa Catarina
Marcilio Dias vs Hercilio Luz
4:2
Jan 24, 2025 Catarinense
Marcilio Dias vs Hercilio Luz
1:0
Nov 2, 2024 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Marcilio Dias
1:2
Oct 27, 2024 Copa Santa Catarina
Marcilio Dias vs Hercilio Luz
0:0
Oct 2, 2024 Copa Santa Catarina
Marcilio Dias vs Hercilio Luz
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marcilio Dias Compare
Top Goalscorer Wesley
1 Goals Assists Leader Caio Hones
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Hercilio Luz Compare
Top Goalscorer Dudu Silva
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marcilio Dias 41 / 100
Hercilio Luz 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marcilio Dias Hercilio Luz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Marcilio Dias Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Marcilio Dias scored in 67% of their last 30 games.
Hercilio Luz has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Marcilio Dias has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Marcilio Dias VS Hercilio Luz
2.38 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Marcilio Dias
(Home) 19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1 Marcilio Dias
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5 Marcilio Dias
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Joinville
11 Jul
Portuguesa
2 : 0 Marcilio Dias
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Joinville
04 Jul
Marcilio Dias
1 : 1 Portuguesa
28 Jun
Marcilio Dias
2 : 1 FC Cascavel
01 Jun
Marcilio Dias
0 : 1 Azuriz
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Hercilio Luz
(Away) 19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3 Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2 CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2 Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0 Caravaggio
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3 Hercilio Luz
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2 Hercilio Luz
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2 Hercilio Luz
12 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2 Hercilio Luz
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcilio Dias | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:8 | 9 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 3 | Santa Catarina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 4 | Hercilio Luz | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:7 | 6 |
| 5 | Joinville | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 6 | CA Metropolitano | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:9 | 3 |
| 7 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 8 | Nacao | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5:10 | 2 |
| 9 | Blumenau | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:5 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs)
