Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mardin 1969 vs Turgutlu

Turkey Turkey

3. Lig Group 4 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Ozdemir A.
51' Event
Imir A.

AI Match Summary

The 3. Lig Group 4 2024/2025 game between Mardin 1969 and Turgutlu finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Mardin 1969
30%
Draws
41%
Turgutlu
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Turgutlu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Mardin 1969 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular 3. Lig Group 4 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Mardin 1969 have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Mardin 1969 Clean Sheet 20%
Turgutlu Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mardin 1969 Turgutlu
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 4
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.45 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.68 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2025 3. Lig Group 4
Mardin 1969 vs Turgutlu
1:1
Nov 24, 2024 3. Lig Group 4
Turgutlu vs Mardin 1969
1:2
Oct 27, 2021 Turkish Cup
Turgutlu vs Mardin 1969
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mardin 1969 Compare

Top Goalscorer Ozdemir A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Turgutlu Compare

Top Goalscorer Imir A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mardin 1969 31 / 100
Turgutlu 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mardin 1969 Turgutlu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mardin 1969 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Turgutlu conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Mardin 1969's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Mardin 1969 remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mardin 1969 VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mardin 1969

(Home)
20 Sept
Mardin 1969
0 : 1
Kayserispor
13 Sept
Igdir FK
1 : 0
Mardin 1969
07 Sept
Mardin 1969
1 : 0
Bodrumspor
02 Sept
Sivasspor
2 : 2
Mardin 1969
29 Aug
Mardin 1969
1 : 1
Vanspor FK
Page 1 of 7

Turgutlu

(Away)
26 Apr
Turgutlu
0 : 3
Izmir Coruhlu
20 Apr
Nigde
1 : 3
Turgutlu
13 Apr
Turgutlu
1 : 3
Orduspor 1967
06 Apr
Mardin 1969
1 : 1
Turgutlu
02 Apr
Turgutlu
1 : 0
K. Istklalspor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mardin 1969 30 20 7 3 64:24 67
2 Sebat Spor Kulubu 30 21 4 5 73:28 67
3 Agri 1970 30 17 7 6 42:27 58
4 Zonguldak Komurspor 30 17 6 7 41:28 57
5 K. Istklalspor 30 16 8 6 55:26 56
6 Kirikkale FK 30 16 6 8 44:31 54
7 Orduspor 1967 30 16 5 9 61:33 53
8 Gemlikspor 30 10 11 9 38:29 41
9 Erciyes 38 30 9 7 14 35:48 34
10 1926 Polatli Belediye 30 7 8 15 37:58 29
11 Izmir Coruhlu 30 7 7 16 41:58 28
12 Nigde 30 6 9 15 30:53 27
13 Edirnespor Genclik 30 5 7 18 28:62 22
14 Tepecik 30 4 9 17 24:54 21
15 Denizlispor 30 5 12 13 27:55 21
16 Turgutlu 30 4 7 19 34:60 19
Promotion - 3. Lig Group 1 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - 3. Lig Group 1 2024/2025 (Play Offs)