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Maribor vs Mura - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Ljudski vrt, Maribor
Maribor Logo

Maribor

1 - 1
FT
Mura Logo

Mura

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Tshipamba I.
Assist: Cipot T.
35'
Kurtovic K.
44' Event
Kasalo N.
Assist: Kurtovic K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Prva liga matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Maribor
35%
Draws
12%
Mura
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maribor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Maribor have won more games recently than Mura.
  • Model gives Maribor a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Maribor Clean Sheet 20%
Mura Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maribor Mura
Matches Played 28 25
Wins 9 6
Draws 13 6
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.5 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Prva liga
Maribor vs Mura
1:1
May 17, 2026 Prva liga
Mura vs Maribor
2:1
Mar 14, 2026 Prva liga
Maribor vs Mura
3:0
Nov 29, 2025 Prva liga
Mura vs Maribor
0:1
Sep 13, 2025 Prva liga
Maribor vs Mura
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maribor Compare

Top Goalscorer Tshipamba I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Mura Compare

Top Goalscorer Kasalo N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maribor 85 / 100
Mura 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maribor Mura

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maribor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Maribor scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Mura let in goals in 80% of their last 25 matches.

Maribor went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Maribor VS Mura
1.88 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maribor

(Home)
28 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
HNK Gorica
19 Sept
Maribor
2 : 2
Aluminij
13 Sept
Radomlje
0 : 3
Maribor
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
Page 1 of 6

Mura

(Away)
20 Sept
Mura
0 : 0
Celje
13 Sept
Mura
1 : 6
Aluminij
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
29 Aug
Bravo
2 : 0
Mura
22 Aug
Mura
0 : 1
Koper
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 19:8 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 12:10 18
4 O. Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 10:8 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 16:11 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 11:11 12
8 Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 14:18 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 10:21 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 9:18 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)