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Stadium Background

Marica vs Goncalense

Brazil Brazil

Copa Rio 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Copa Rio 2025 tie, finishing 0-0. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Marica
35%
Draws
34%
Goncalense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Marica have won more games recently than Goncalense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Marica have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Goncalense, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Marica Clean Sheet 26%
Goncalense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marica Goncalense
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 9 11
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.03 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.12 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 13, 2025 Copa Rio
Marica vs Goncalense
0:0
Jul 30, 2025 Copa Rio
Goncalense vs Marica
0:3
Jun 1, 2024 Carioca 2
Marica vs Goncalense
4:1
Jun 24, 2023 Carioca 2
Marica vs Goncalense
1:2
May 18, 2022 Carioca 2
Goncalense vs Marica
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marica 38 / 100
Goncalense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marica Goncalense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Goncalense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Marica scored in 73% of their last 33 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Marica went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Goncalense has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Marica VS Goncalense
1 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 17%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Marica

(Home)
12 Aug
Boavista
3 : 0
Marica
05 Aug
Marica
1 : 0
Boavista
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
18 Jul
Marica
1 : 1
Resende
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
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Goncalense

(Away)
03 Oct
Campo Grande
0 : 0
Goncalense
26 Sept
Goncalense
3 : 2
Audax RJ
19 Sept
Goytacaz
0 : 2
Goncalense
12 Sept
Goncalense
1 : 1
Niteroiense
05 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 0
Goncalense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
CEAC/Araruama 3
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Olaria 0
Nova Iguacu 1
Cabofriense 2
Boavista 1
America RJ 2
Audax RJ 0
Goncalense 0
Marica 3
Duque de Caxias 1
Madureira 2
Campo Grande 0
Bangu 3
Resende 2
Portuguesa RJ 3
Quarter-finals
CEAC/Araruama 3
Nova Iguacu 2
Cabofriense 2
America RJ 5
Marica 6
Madureira 1
Bangu 0
Portuguesa RJ 1
Semi-finals
CEAC/Araruama 0
America RJ 1
Marica 1
Portuguesa RJ 3
Final
America RJ 1
Portuguesa RJ 2