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Mariehamn vs Jaro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

2 - 0
FT
Jaro Logo

Jaro

Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Larsson A.
49'
Harden K.
52'
Skau J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mariehamn in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mariehamn.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Mariehamn
20%
Draws
15%
Jaro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Mariehamn have won more games recently than Jaro.
  • Model gives Mariehamn a 65% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Veikkausliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 20%
Jaro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mariehamn Jaro
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 5
Draws 5 8
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.03 1
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Jaro
2:0
May 23, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs Mariehamn
3:0
Sep 28, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs Mariehamn
2:3
Jul 6, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs Mariehamn
1:1
Apr 5, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Jaro
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mariehamn Compare

Top Goalscorer Larsson A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jakobsen T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Jaro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mariehamn 85 / 100
Jaro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mariehamn Jaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaro let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Mariehamn went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Jaro's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mariehamn VS Jaro
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mariehamn

(Home)
18 Sept
SJK
2 : 1
Mariehamn
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

Jaro

(Away)
18 Sept
Lahti
1 : 1
Jaro
12 Sept
Jaro
1 : 1
SJK
08 Sept
Ilves
2 : 0
Jaro
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
22 Aug
Jaro
0 : 1
AC Oulu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)