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Marilia vs Desportivo

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 Estadio Bento de Abreu
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Carlos Alberto
32' Event
Willian

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 game between Marilia and Desportivo finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marilia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Marilia
6%
Draws
4%
Desportivo
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Marilia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marilia come out ahead of Desportivo on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Marilia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 7%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Marilia Clean Sheet 68%
Desportivo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marilia Desportivo
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 10 9
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.25 0.43
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Desportivo
2:0
Jan 29, 2025 Paulista A3
Desportivo vs Marilia
1:2
Feb 28, 2024 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Desportivo
3:0
Mar 11, 2023 Paulista A3
Desportivo vs Marilia
1:0
Feb 16, 2022 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Desportivo
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marilia Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlos Alberto
1 Goals
Assists Leader Willian
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Desportivo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.39
Avg xA / game 0.24

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marilia 95 / 100
Desportivo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marilia Desportivo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marilia found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (32 games).

Desportivo let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Marilia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marilia VS Desportivo
1.25 Goals Scored 0.43
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.57
88% Over 1.5 71%
0% Over 2.5 43%
0% Over 3.5 14%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Portuguesa Santista15120326:936
2Marilia1595123:632
3Rio Preto EC1585224:1329
4XV de Jau1583416:1127
5Rio Claro1574419:1625
6Uniao Barbarense1566316:1424
7EC Sao Bernardo1565422:1523
8Paulista1565420:1323
9Uniao Sao Joao1564516:1522
10Catanduva FC1556416:1521
11Bandeirante1546515:1918
12Rio Branco SP1544713:2416
13Francana15311113:2210
14Itapirense15231014:269
15Desportivo151598:258
16Uniao Suzano15121210:285