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Marilia vs XV de Jau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 Estadio Bento de Abreu, Sao Paulo
Sat, Apr 18, 2026
3 - 2
10:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Andrade A.
50' Event
Willian
66' Event
Guilherme Souza
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Marilia
20%
Draws
73%
XV de Jau
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: XV de Jau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Marilia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives XV de Jau a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Marilia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Marilia, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Marilia Clean Sheet 23%
XV de Jau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marilia XV de Jau
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 16 13
Draws 10 8
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.41 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.91 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs XV de Jau
3:2
Apr 12, 2026 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Marilia
0:0
Mar 15, 2026 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Marilia
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Paulista A3
Marilia vs XV de Jau
2:1
Mar 21, 2012 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Marilia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marilia Compare

Top Goalscorer Willian
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

XV de Jau Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrade A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Santos M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marilia 13 / 100
XV de Jau 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marilia XV de Jau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick XV de Jau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marilia's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: XV de Jau conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Marilia remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Marilia VS XV de Jau
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Marilia

(Home)
22 Aug
Gremio Prudente
1 : 0
Marilia
15 Aug
Marilia
0 : 1
Linense
11 Aug
Marilia
1 : 1
Bandeirante
01 Aug
Bandeirante
3 : 1
Marilia
26 Jul
Linense
3 : 1
Marilia
Page 1 of 7

XV de Jau

(Away)
18 Apr
Marilia
3 : 2
XV de Jau
12 Apr
XV de Jau
0 : 0
Marilia
05 Apr
XV de Jau
2 : 0
Rio Claro
28 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
21 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
XV de Jau
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Marilia 3
EC Sao Bernardo 2
XV de Jau 3
Rio Claro 0
Portuguesa Santista 3
Paulista 2
Rio Preto EC 3
Uniao Barbarense 0
Semi-finals
Marilia 3
XV de Jau 2
Portuguesa Santista 2
Rio Preto EC 1
Final
Marilia 2
Portuguesa Santista 4