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Marines vs Sunrise - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Usabimana O.
Penalty Missed
49' Event
Hirwa F.
Own Goal
56'

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2023/2024 game between Marines and Sunrise finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Marines
30%
Draws
37%
Sunrise
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sunrise

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marines come out ahead of Sunrise on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Marines taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Marines Clean Sheet 20%
Sunrise Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marines Sunrise
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 9 7
Draws 10 7
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.45 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2024 Premier League
Sunrise vs Marines
3:1
Dec 12, 2023 Premier League
Marines vs Sunrise
1:1
Feb 11, 2023 Premier League
Sunrise vs Marines
1:2
Dec 16, 2022 Premier League
Marines vs Sunrise
2:2
May 13, 2021 Premier League
Marines vs Sunrise
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marines Compare

Top Goalscorer Mugisha D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Sunrise Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marines 36 / 100
Sunrise 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marines Sunrise

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marines's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Sunrise conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Marines went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marines VS Sunrise
1.38 Goals Scored 0.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Marines

(Home)
16 Sept
APR
4 : 2
Marines
06 Sept
Marines
2 : 0
Kigali FC
30 May
Marines
3 : 2
Muhanga
24 May
Marines
1 : 1
Musanze
16 May
Marines
2 : 3
Etincelles
Page 1 of 7

Sunrise

(Away)
17 Sept
Rayon Sport
1 : 1
Sunrise
05 Sept
Etincelles
0 : 0
Sunrise
11 May
Sunrise
3 : 1
Marines
04 May
Amagaju
1 : 0
Sunrise
28 Apr
Sunrise
2 : 1
Gorilla
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 APR 30 19 11 0 47:17 68
2 Rayon Sport 30 17 6 7 42:25 57
3 Musanze 30 16 5 9 34:24 53
4 Mukura Victory Sports 30 13 8 9 39:32 47
5 Kigali FC 30 12 9 9 26:25 45
6 Kiyovu 30 11 11 8 38:34 44
7 Police 30 12 3 15 35:34 39
8 Amagaju 30 10 9 11 30:31 39
9 Gasogi United 30 10 6 14 31:34 36
10 Gorilla 30 9 8 13 26:33 35
11 Marines 30 9 8 13 32:42 35
12 Muhazi United 30 7 12 11 21:29 33
13 Bugesera 30 7 11 12 37:35 32
14 Etincelles 30 8 8 14 35:44 32
15 Sunrise 30 9 5 16 25:40 32
16 Etoile de L'Est 30 9 4 17 20:39 31
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2023/2024 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2024/2025 (Qualification)