Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maringa FC vs Santa Cruz

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio Willie Davids
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maringa FC play Santa Cruz in the Serie C. It looks like a close match. Recently, Maringa FC averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. Santa Cruz averaged 1 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. In past meetings, Maringa FC won 0, Santa Cruz won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 23, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Maringa FC and 1.50 for Santa Cruz. This points to a Maringa FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Maringa FC
23%
Draws
33%
Santa Cruz
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Maringa FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Maringa FC picked up more points recently compared to Santa Cruz.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Maringa FC Clean Sheet 16%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maringa FC Santa Cruz
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 11
Draws 8 6
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.93 1
Goals Conceded 1.36 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Serie C
Maringa FC vs Santa Cruz
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maringa FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Adeilson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Favela
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maringa FC 43 / 100
Santa Cruz 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maringa FC Santa Cruz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Maringa FC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Maringa FC attacking → ← attacking Santa Cruz

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maringa FC scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Santa Cruz let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Maringa FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Santa Cruz lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 39
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Brusque1373320:1424
2Guarani1365223:1123
3Internacional de Limeira1364316:1422
4Santa Cruz1363413:921
5Paysandu PA1362519:1720
6SER Caxias do Sul1355313:1020
7Botafogo PB1361617:1519
8Maringa FC1354426:2419
9Ituano1354415:1319
10Floresta EC1354415:1419
11Ferroviaria1354412:1119
12Ypiranga FC1353516:1718
13Amazonas1352613:1817
14Volta Redonda1352610:1517
15Figueirense1344512:1816
16Barra FC (Santa Catarina)1336416:1415
17Maranhao133559:1314
18Itabaiana1334611:1713
19Confianca133288:1211
20Anapolis132389:179