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Marist vs Lautoka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Champions League 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

57'
Naidu P.
64' Event
Naidu P.
71'
Sub
Vakatalesau O. In: Finau P.
Out: Vakatalesau O.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Lautoka advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Marist
20%
Draws
34%
Lautoka
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marist

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Lautoka carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Marist are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Lautoka arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Lautoka, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Lautoka here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Marist Clean Sheet 14%
Lautoka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marist Lautoka
Matches Played 22 34
Wins 5 20
Draws 5 7
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.45 2.09
Goals Conceded 2.14 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.61
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2018 OFC Champions League
Marist vs Lautoka
0:1
Apr 22, 2018 OFC Champions League
Lautoka vs Marist
1:1
Feb 14, 2010 OFC Champions League
Lautoka vs Marist
3:0
Oct 18, 2009 OFC Champions League
Marist vs Lautoka
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marist Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Lautoka Compare

Top Goalscorer Naidu P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.46
Avg xA / game 0.89

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marist 75 / 100
Lautoka 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marist Lautoka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marist Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marist found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (22 games).

Defensive concern: Lautoka conceded in 79% of 34 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Marist stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lautoka
0 Goals Scored 2.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marist

(Home)
29 Apr
Marist
0 : 1
Lautoka
22 Apr
Lautoka
1 : 1
Marist
07 Apr
Nalkutan
1 : 2
Marist
02 Mar
Lupe ole Soaga
1 : 3
Marist
27 Feb
Marist
1 : 1
Magenta
Page 1 of 5

Lautoka

(Away)
16 Aug
Lautoka
2 : 1
Nadi
14 Aug
Labasa
5 : 3
Lautoka
02 Aug
Lautoka
3 : 1
Nadroga
26 Jul
Ba
4 : 1
Lautoka
19 Jul
Lautoka
1 : 2
Nasinu
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Team Wellington 11
Lae City 0
Auckland City 2
Solomon Warriors 0
AS Dragon 1
Lautoka 2
Nalkutan 1
Marist 2
Semi-finals
Team Wellington 2
Auckland City 2
Lautoka 2
Marist 1
Final
Team Wellington 10
Lautoka 3