Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maritimo vs Casa Pia

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Sousa D.
61' Event
Guzzo R.
Assist: Tejon M.
66'
Sub
Conte A. In: Rosas P.
Out: Conte A.

AI Match Summary

Maritimo in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maritimo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Maritimo
30%
Draws
47%
Casa Pia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Casa Pia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Maritimo have won more games recently than Casa Pia.
  • Win probability leans Maritimo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 68%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maritimo Casa Pia
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 14 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.23 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs Casa Pia
1:0
Mar 19, 2023 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Maritimo
2:0
Oct 3, 2022 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs Casa Pia
1:2
Jul 23, 2022 Club Friendly
Casa Pia vs Maritimo
0:0
Nov 25, 2000 Taça de Portugal
Maritimo vs Casa Pia
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maritimo Compare

Top Goalscorer Guzzo R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Casa Pia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maritimo 95 / 100
Casa Pia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maritimo Casa Pia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maritimo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Maritimo scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Casa Pia conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Casa Pia's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Maritimo VS Casa Pia
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maritimo

(Home)
19 Sept
Gil Vicente
1 : 1
Maritimo
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1
Maritimo
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1
Maritimo
22 Aug
Maritimo
2 : 2
Academico Viseu
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Casa Pia

(Away)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0
Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1
Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0
Casa Pia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 18:3 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 11:4 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Braga 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
8 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
9 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 3:16 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 3:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)