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Maritimo vs Chaves - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal
Maritimo Logo

Maritimo

1 - 3
FT
Chaves Logo

Chaves

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Kusso D.
Assist: Reinaldo
15' Event
Reinaldo
Assist: Kusso D.
46'
Sub
Gomes Aguiar F. T. In: Daniel C.
Out: Gomes Aguiar F. T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 game between Maritimo and Chaves finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chaves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Maritimo
20%
Draws
60%
Chaves
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chaves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Maritimo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 60% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 19%
Chaves Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maritimo Chaves
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 12
Draws 6 1
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.14 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Maritimo vs Chaves
1:3
Jan 11, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Maritimo
2:3
Feb 2, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Maritimo
1:1
Aug 25, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Maritimo vs Chaves
1:1
Feb 5, 2023 Liga Portugal
Chaves vs Maritimo
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maritimo Compare

Top Goalscorer Butzke A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Chaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Kusso D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Reinaldo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maritimo 36 / 100
Chaves 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maritimo Chaves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chaves Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Maritimo scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Chaves's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Chaves lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maritimo VS Chaves
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maritimo

(Home)
19 Sept
Gil Vicente
1 : 1
Maritimo
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1
Maritimo
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1
Maritimo
22 Aug
Maritimo
2 : 2
Academico Viseu
Page 1 of 6

Chaves

(Away)
04 Oct
SC Farense
4 : 0
Chaves
25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3
Chaves
13 Sept
Chaves
1 : 0
Feirense
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1
Chaves
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maritimo 34 20 6 8 50:29 66
2 Academico Viseu 34 17 8 9 58:33 59
3 Torreense 34 18 5 11 46:33 59
4 Vizela 34 14 9 11 39:40 51
5 FC Porto B 34 15 6 13 41:42 51
6 Leiria 34 13 11 10 52:46 50
7 Leixoes 34 15 5 14 46:55 50
8 Feirense 34 12 10 12 37:40 46
9 Chaves 34 13 6 15 42:40 45
10 Benfica B 34 11 11 12 43:44 44
11 FC Felgueiras 34 11 11 12 34:38 44
12 Lusitania FC 34 11 10 13 44:52 43
13 Sporting CP B 34 13 3 18 41:34 42
14 Penafiel 34 11 8 15 37:39 41
15 Portimonense 34 11 7 16 39:49 40
16 SC Farense 34 10 10 14 31:37 40
17 Pacos Ferreira 34 9 12 13 34:48 39
18 Oliveirense 34 8 10 16 34:49 34
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)