Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maritimo vs Chaves

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Kusso D.
Assist: Reinaldo
15' Event
Reinaldo
Assist: Kusso D.
46'
Sub
Gomes Aguiar F. T. In: Daniel C.
Out: Gomes Aguiar F. T.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 game between Maritimo and Chaves finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chaves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Maritimo
20%
Draws
22%
Chaves
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maritimo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / High Confidence
  • Maritimo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Maritimo taking it.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 15%
Chaves Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maritimo Chaves
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 6 1
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 0.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Maritimo vs Chaves
1:3
Jan 11, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Maritimo
2:3
Feb 2, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Maritimo
1:1
Aug 25, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Maritimo vs Chaves
1:1
Feb 5, 2023 Liga Portugal
Chaves vs Maritimo
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maritimo Compare

Top Goalscorer Butzke A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Chaves Compare

Top Goalscorer Kusso D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Reinaldo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maritimo 48 / 100
Chaves 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maritimo Chaves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Maritimo scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Chaves's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Maritimo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maritimo VS Chaves
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Maritimo

(Home)
01 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0
Nacional
29 Jul
Maritimo
1 : 1
Estrela Calheta
25 Jul
Maritimo
0 : 0
Machico
22 Jul
Maritimo
2 : 0
Camacha
17 Jul
Maritimo
1 : 5
Leixoes
Page 1 of 6

Chaves

(Away)
02 Aug
Academico Viseu
1 : 0
Chaves
01 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
2 : 0
Chaves
25 Jul
Chaves
2 : 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B
22 Jul
Chaves
2 : 1
Amarante FC
18 Jul
Vizela
1 : 0
Chaves
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maritimo 34 20 6 8 50:29 66
2 Academico Viseu 34 17 8 9 58:33 59
3 Torreense 34 18 5 11 46:33 59
4 Vizela 34 14 9 11 39:40 51
5 FC Porto B 34 15 6 13 41:42 51
6 Leiria 34 13 11 10 52:46 50
7 Leixoes 34 15 5 14 46:55 50
8 Feirense 34 12 10 12 37:40 46
9 Chaves 34 13 6 15 42:40 45
10 Benfica B 34 11 11 12 43:44 44
11 FC Felgueiras 34 11 11 12 34:38 44
12 Lusitania FC 34 11 10 13 44:52 43
13 Sporting CP B 34 13 3 18 41:34 42
14 Penafiel 34 11 8 15 37:39 41
15 Portimonense 34 11 7 16 39:49 40
16 SC Farense 34 10 10 14 31:37 40
17 Pacos Ferreira 34 9 12 13 34:48 39
18 Oliveirense 34 8 10 16 34:49 34
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)