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Maritimo vs FC Porto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maritimo host FC Porto in the Liga Portugal. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. FC Porto have shipped 0.81 goals a game lately, while Maritimo have conceded 1.17 and scored 1.14. Head-to-head, Maritimo have won 0 to FC Porto's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 1, 2023, ending 0:2. The numbers (0.81 xG vs 1.75) point toward FC Porto. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%
Maritimo
20%
Draws
69%
FC Porto
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC Porto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FC Porto lately — more wins on the board than Maritimo.
  • FC Porto are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and FC Porto have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 12%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maritimo FC Porto
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 13 21
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.14 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2023 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs FC Porto
0:2
Aug 6, 2022 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Maritimo
5:1
Jan 30, 2022 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Maritimo
2:1
Aug 22, 2021 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs FC Porto
1:1
Feb 22, 2021 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs FC Porto
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maritimo 10 / 100
FC Porto 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maritimo FC Porto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Porto Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Maritimo scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

FC Porto let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Maritimo stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maritimo VS FC Porto
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maritimo

(Home)
19 Sept
Gil Vicente
1 : 1
Maritimo
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1
Maritimo
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1
Maritimo
22 Aug
Maritimo
2 : 2
Academico Viseu
Page 1 of 6

FC Porto

(Away)
02 Oct
Dep. A Coruna
1 : 3
FC Porto
20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1
Benfica
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
08 Sept
FC Porto
0 : 2
Manchester City
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1
Moreirense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 18:3 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 11:4 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Braga 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
8 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
9 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 3:16 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 3:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)