Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maritimo vs Nacional

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Butzke A.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Maritimo and Nacional finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maritimo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Maritimo
35%
Draws
18%
Nacional
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maritimo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maritimo come out ahead of Nacional on wins alone.
  • Model gives Maritimo a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Maritimo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 68%
Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maritimo Nacional
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 7
Draws 6 7
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 3, 2025 Club Friendly
Maritimo vs Nacional
3:0
Aug 4, 2024 Club Friendly
Maritimo vs Nacional
0:0
Jul 23, 2024 Club Friendly
Maritimo vs Nacional
2:0
Jan 21, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Maritimo vs Nacional
3:1
Aug 12, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Nacional vs Maritimo
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maritimo Compare

Top Goalscorer Butzke A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maritimo 50 / 100
Nacional 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maritimo Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maritimo scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Nacional's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Maritimo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maritimo VS Nacional
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Maritimo

(Home)
01 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0
Nacional
29 Jul
Maritimo
1 : 1
Estrela Calheta
25 Jul
Maritimo
0 : 0
Machico
22 Jul
Maritimo
2 : 0
Camacha
17 Jul
Maritimo
1 : 5
Leixoes
Page 1 of 6

Nacional

(Away)
01 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0
Nacional
23 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 0
Nacional
22 Jul
Nacional
0 : 0
Leganes
19 Jul
Tondela
1 : 1
Nacional
18 Jul
Nacional
3 : 3
Leixoes
Page 1 of 6