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Maroons vs Police

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Oshaba M.
17' Event
Mayanja I.
38' Event
Bukenya D.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Maroons and Police finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maroons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Maroons
35%
Draws
35%
Police
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Police come out ahead of Maroons on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Maroons Clean Sheet 20%
Police Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maroons Police
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 11 8
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.84 1.4
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Premier League
Maroons vs Police
3:1
Oct 29, 2025 Premier League
Police vs Maroons
2:1
May 6, 2025 Premier League
Maroons vs Police
1:0
Mar 17, 2025 Uganda Cup
Maroons vs Police
0:1
Dec 19, 2024 Premier League
Police vs Maroons
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maroons Compare

Top Goalscorer Oshaba M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mayanja I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Bukenya D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maroons 32 / 100
Police 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maroons Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Police conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Maroons went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Maroons scored in 52% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maroons VS Police
1 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maroons

(Home)
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Maroons
0 : 3
Vipers
12 May
Maroons
0 : 0
Entebbe UPPC
07 May
Kampala City
3 : 0
Maroons
28 Apr
Uganda Revenue
2 : 2
Maroons
Page 1 of 7

Police

(Away)
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
19 May
Police
1 : 1
Entebbe UPPC
12 May
Police
0 : 0
Vipers
06 May
Calvary
1 : 0
Police
29 Apr
Police
2 : 0
UPDF FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)