Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Marquense vs Municipal

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada, San Marcos
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Grande D.
Penalty Missed
13' Event
Ledesma A.
35' Event
Mendez J.

AI Match Summary

Municipal in this Liga Nacional matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Municipal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Marquense
15%
Draws
65%
Municipal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Municipal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Municipal have won more games recently than Marquense.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Municipal taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Municipal have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Marquense Clean Sheet 10%
Municipal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marquense Municipal
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 10 22
Draws 5 4
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.03 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.64
Expected Goals (xG) 0.54 1.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 3, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Municipal
1:2
Apr 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Municipal
1:3
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Nacional
Municipal vs Marquense
1:0
Nov 30, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marquense vs Municipal
0:2
Sep 20, 2025 Liga Nacional
Municipal vs Marquense
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marquense Compare

Top Goalscorer Ledesma A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.42
Avg xA / game 0.27

Municipal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Morales J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.06

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marquense 10 / 100
Municipal 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marquense Municipal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Municipal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Marquense scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Municipal conceded in 48% of 33 recent games.

Recent resilience: Marquense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Marquense VS Municipal
0.71 Goals Scored 2.38
1.43 Goals Conceded 0.38
71% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 38%
14% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Marquense

(Home)
16 Aug
Suchitepequez
1 : 2
Marquense
08 Aug
Deportivo Mixco
1 : 0
Marquense
03 Aug
Marquense
1 : 2
Municipal
25 Jul
Antigua
3 : 1
Marquense
04 May
Xelaju
2 : 0
Marquense
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Municipal

(Away)
15 Aug
Guastatoya
1 : 0
Municipal
09 Aug
Municipal
2 : 0
Coban Imperial
07 Aug
Verdes
0 : 1
Municipal
03 Aug
Marquense
1 : 2
Municipal
31 Jul
Municipal
1 : 1
Cartagines
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Municipal 4 3 0 1 6:2 9
2 Guastatoya 4 3 0 1 6:2 9
3 Deportivo San Pedro 4 3 0 1 6:2 9
4 Comunicaciones 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
5 Antigua 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
6 Deportivo Mixco 4 2 0 2 5:5 6
7 Xelaju 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
8 Coban Imperial 3 1 1 1 4:5 4
9 Aurora F.C. 4 1 0 3 5:7 3
10 Marquense 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
11 Malacateco 4 0 2 2 5:11 2
12 Suchitepequez 4 0 1 3 1:7 1
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)