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Marsa vs Mtarfa

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2025/2026 Victor Tedesco Stadium, Hamrun
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Davi Versiani
45' Event
Demanuele N.
63' Event
Sakyi G.

AI Match Summary

Marsa in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marsa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Marsa
20%
Draws
0%
Mtarfa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marsa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Mtarfa have won more games recently than Marsa.
  • Win probability leans Marsa's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Marsa have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Marsa Clean Sheet 68%
Mtarfa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marsa Mtarfa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 5
Draws 7 2
Losses 19 23
Goals Scored 1.27 0.7
Goals Conceded 2.13 3.53
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Challenge League
Marsa vs Mtarfa
5:0
Sep 21, 2025 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Marsa
0:2
Jan 4, 2025 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Marsa
0:2
Mar 5, 2023 Challenge League
Marsa vs Mtarfa
0:0
Dec 15, 2022 Challenge League
Marsa vs Mtarfa
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marsa Compare

Top Goalscorer Demanuele N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Davi Versiani
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Mtarfa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marsa 95 / 100
Mtarfa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marsa Mtarfa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marsa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mtarfa let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Mtarfa lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Marsa found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Marsa VS Mtarfa
1.13 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 4.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Marsa

(Home)
18 Apr
Zebbug
1 : 1
Marsa
11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0
Mtarfa
01 Apr
Zurrieq
2 : 1
Marsa
14 Mar
Santa Lucia
0 : 1
Marsa
08 Mar
Marsa
3 : 3
Gudja
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Mtarfa

(Away)
19 Apr
Mtarfa
1 : 5
Santa Lucia
11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0
Mtarfa
01 Apr
Mtarfa
0 : 1
Vittoriosa
15 Mar
Gudja
3 : 0
Mtarfa
07 Mar
Mtarfa
0 : 2
Zurrieq
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