Sport Picks
Match Events
6'
6'
Paixao I.
Assist: Aubameyang P.
12'
12'
Paixao I.
Assist: Vermeeren A.
23'
23'
Sub
Regeer Y. In: Mokio J.
Out: Regeer Y.
AI Match Summary
Marseille in this Champions League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marseille.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Marseille
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Ajax lately — more wins on the board than Marseille.
- Win probability leans Marseille's way, sitting at 42%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Marseille Clean Sheet 13%
Ajax Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Marseille | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 15 |
| Draws | 3 | 9 |
| Losses | 13 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.87 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.63 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.58 | 1.65 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 30, 2025 Champions League
Marseille vs Ajax
4:0
Nov 30, 2023 Europa League
Marseille vs Ajax
4:3
Sep 21, 2023 Europa League
Ajax vs Marseille
3:3
Jul 20, 2016 Club Friendly
Marseille vs Ajax
2:2
Mar 18, 2009 Europa League
Ajax vs Marseille
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Marseille Compare
Top Goalscorer Paixao I.
2 Goals Assists Leader Greenwood M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.22
Avg xA / game 0.79
Ajax Compare
Avg xG / game 1.5
Avg xA / game 0.92
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Marseille 40 / 100
Ajax 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Marseille Ajax
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.
Marseille scored in 73% of their last 30 games.
Ajax has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.
Solid form: Marseille remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Marseille VS Ajax
2.17 Goals Scored 2.13
1.17 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
33% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Marseille
(Home) 21 Aug
Marseille
4 : 0 Strasbourg
14 Aug
Marseille
1 : 2 Atl. Madrid
09 Aug
Marseille
3 : 1 Ath Bilbao
05 Aug
Marseille
3 : 0 Al-Shahaniya
30 Jul
Marseille
2 : 1 Nimes
Page 1 of 6
21 Aug
Marseille
4 : 0 Strasbourg
14 Aug
Marseille
1 : 2 Atl. Madrid
09 Aug
Marseille
3 : 1 Ath Bilbao
05 Aug
Marseille
3 : 0 Al-Shahaniya
30 Jul
Marseille
2 : 1 Nimes
Page 1 of 4
Ajax
(Away) 20 Aug
Sion
2 : 4 Ajax
16 Aug
Ajax
2 : 2 Heerenveen
13 Aug
Shelbourne
2 : 2 Ajax
09 Aug
Zwolle
0 : 2 Ajax
06 Aug
Ajax
3 : 1 Shelbourne
Page 1 of 6
20 Aug
Sion
2 : 4 Ajax
13 Aug
Shelbourne
2 : 2 Ajax
09 Aug
Zwolle
0 : 2 Ajax
02 Aug
FC Volendam
1 : 3 Ajax
23 Jul
Vojvodina
1 : 4 Ajax
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:8 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22:14 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 |
| 11 | PSG | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:11 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 14 | Atl. Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 17 | Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19:17 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:14 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag Agdam | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:21 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:12 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:11 | 9 |
| 27 | Royale Union SG | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 8 |
| 29 | Ath Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:21 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10:21 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:19 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:18 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7:22 | 1 |
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
