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Marseille vs Ath Bilbao - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Gomes A.
17'
Guruzeta G.
34' Event
Sancet O.

AI Match Summary

Marseille in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marseille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Marseille
30%
Draws
35%
Ath Bilbao
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Marseille lately — more wins on the board than Ath Bilbao.
  • 35% — that's where the model lands on Marseille taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Marseille Clean Sheet 16%
Ath Bilbao Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marseille Ath Bilbao
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 10
Draws 2 5
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.54 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Club Friendly
Marseille vs Ath Bilbao
3:1
Mar 15, 2018 Europa League
Ath Bilbao vs Marseille
1:2
Mar 8, 2018 Europa League
Marseille vs Ath Bilbao
3:1
Feb 25, 2016 Europa League
Ath Bilbao vs Marseille
1:1
Feb 18, 2016 Europa League
Marseille vs Ath Bilbao
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marseille Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomes A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paixao I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Ath Bilbao Compare

Top Goalscorer Sancet O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marseille 57 / 100
Ath Bilbao 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marseille Ath Bilbao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marseille Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marseille's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Ath Bilbao has conceded goals in 59% of their last 27 outings.

Marseille has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Marseille VS Ath Bilbao
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Marseille

(Home)
18 Oct
Angers
2 : 5
Marseille
15 Oct
Marseille
0 : 1
Olympiacos Piraeus
11 Oct
Troyes
0 : 2
Marseille
20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2
PSG
17 Sept
Besiktas
4 : 1
Marseille
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Ath Bilbao

(Away)
21 Oct
Levante
3 : 1
Ath Bilbao
17 Oct
Valencia
0 : 0
Ath Bilbao
02 Oct
Real Sociedad
0 : 1
Ath Bilbao
19 Sept
Ath Bilbao
0 : 0
Alaves
12 Sept
Ath Bilbao
1 : 1
Elche
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