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Marseille vs Strasbourg

France France

Ligue 1 Stade Vélodrome, Marseille
Our Tip

Match Events

46' Event
Gouiri A.
Assist: Gomes A.
48'
Amo-Ameyaw S.
59'
El Mourabet S.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 game between Marseille and Strasbourg finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marseille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Marseille
15%
Draws
85%
Strasbourg
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Strasbourg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marseille come out ahead of Strasbourg on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Strasbourg taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Marseille Clean Sheet 20%
Strasbourg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Marseille Strasbourg
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 3 6
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.61 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.65 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Strasbourg
4:0
Feb 14, 2026 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Strasbourg
2:2
Sep 26, 2025 Ligue 1
Strasbourg vs Marseille
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Ligue 1
Marseille vs Strasbourg
1:1
Sep 29, 2024 Ligue 1
Strasbourg vs Marseille
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Marseille Compare

Top Goalscorer Gouiri A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abdallah K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Strasbourg Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Marseille 28 / 100
Strasbourg 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Marseille Strasbourg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Strasbourg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Strasbourg's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Marseille's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Away concern: Strasbourg has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Marseille VS Strasbourg
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Marseille

(Home)
20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2
PSG
17 Sept
Besiktas
4 : 1
Marseille
11 Sept
Rennes
1 : 0
Marseille
06 Sept
Marseille
2 : 3
Paris FC
30 Aug
Monaco
2 : 0
Marseille
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Strasbourg

(Away)
19 Sept
Paris FC
2 : 1
Strasbourg
12 Sept
Strasbourg
1 : 1
Monaco
06 Sept
Troyes
2 : 6
Strasbourg
29 Aug
Strasbourg
2 : 1
Lens
21 Aug
Marseille
4 : 0
Strasbourg
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10:2 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8:3 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8:9 10
6 PSG 5 2 2 1 8:7 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10:10 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9:9 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7:12 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7:8 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3:6 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9:9 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4:11 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7:8 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)