Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Martina Calcio vs Afragolese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Silvestro M.
57'
Filippini L.
67' Event
Silvestro M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Martina Calcio in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Martina Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Martina Calcio
30%
Draws
28%
Afragolese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Martina Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Afragolese haven't matched Martina Calcio's recent run of results.
  • Martina Calcio are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Martina Calcio Clean Sheet 68%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Martina Calcio Afragolese
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 9
Draws 5 12
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.58 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Afragolese
2:0
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Martina Calcio
1:0
Jan 29, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Afragolese
1:1
Sep 28, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Martina Calcio
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Martina Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Silvestro M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Afragolese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Martina Calcio 68 / 100
Afragolese 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Martina Calcio Afragolese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Martina Calcio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Martina Calcio scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Afragolese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Martina Calcio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Martina Calcio VS Afragolese
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Martina Calcio

(Home)
27 Sept
A.C.D. Nardo
0 : 3
Martina Calcio
20 Sept
Martina Calcio
1 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
16 Sept
Real Normanna
1 : 2
Martina Calcio
13 Sept
Martina Calcio
2 : 0
Real Forio 2014
06 Sept
Turris
4 : 3
Martina Calcio
Page 1 of 7

Afragolese

(Away)
27 Sept
Citta di Anagni
4 : 0
Afragolese
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)