Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Martina Calcio vs Paganese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
El Haddadi A.

AI Match Summary

Paganese in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Martina Calcio
15%
Draws
31%
Paganese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Martina Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Martina Calcio have won more games recently than Paganese.
  • Model gives Martina Calcio a 54% chance of winning this.
  • Martina Calcio have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Paganese, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Martina Calcio Clean Sheet 68%
Paganese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Martina Calcio Paganese
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 18 14
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.56 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Paganese
0:1
Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Martina Calcio
3:2
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Paganese
0:1
Apr 7, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Paganese
3:1
Nov 26, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Martina Calcio
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Martina Calcio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Paganese Compare

Top Goalscorer El Haddadi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Martina Calcio 59 / 100
Paganese 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Martina Calcio Paganese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Martina Calcio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Martina Calcio scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Paganese let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Martina Calcio went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Martina Calcio VS Paganese
1.75 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Martina Calcio

(Home)
04 Oct
Martina Calcio
1 : 0
Francavilla
27 Sept
A.C.D. Nardo
0 : 3
Martina Calcio
20 Sept
Martina Calcio
1 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
16 Sept
Real Normanna
1 : 2
Martina Calcio
13 Sept
Martina Calcio
2 : 0
Real Forio 2014
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Paganese

(Away)
04 Oct
Sarnese
2 : 1
Paganese
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3
Paganese
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Martina Calcio 2
A.C.D. Nardo 1
Citta di Fasano 1
Paganese 2
Final
Martina Calcio 0
Paganese 1