Sport Picks
Match Events
2'
2'
Llanos A.
7'
7'
La Monica G.
45'
45'
Ievolella L.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 3-1, with Martina Calcio advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
20%
44%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sarnese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Sarnese haven't matched Martina Calcio's recent run of results.
- Martina Calcio are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- Martina Calcio have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Martina Calcio, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Martina Calcio here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Martina Calcio Clean Sheet 15%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Martina Calcio | Sarnese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 17 | 11 |
| Draws | 5 | 12 |
| Losses | 8 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Sarnese
3:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Martina Calcio vs Sarnese
3:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Martina Calcio
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Martina Calcio Compare
Top Goalscorer Llanos A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ievolella L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Sarnese Compare
Top Goalscorer La Monica G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Martina Calcio 41 / 100
Sarnese 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Martina Calcio Sarnese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Martina Calcio scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.33 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Sarnese conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.
Martina Calcio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Martina Calcio VS Sarnese
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Martina Calcio
(Home) 27 Sept
A.C.D. Nardo
0 : 3 Martina Calcio
20 Sept
Martina Calcio
1 : 2 Virtus Francavilla
16 Sept
Real Normanna
1 : 2 Martina Calcio
13 Sept
Martina Calcio
2 : 0 Real Forio 2014
06 Sept
Turris
4 : 3 Martina Calcio
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Martina Calcio
1 : 2 Virtus Francavilla
13 Sept
Martina Calcio
2 : 0 Real Forio 2014
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1 Paganese
10 May
Martina Calcio
2 : 1 A.C.D. Nardo
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1 Heraclea
Page 1 of 3
Sarnese
(Away) 27 Sept
Ossese
2 : 2 Sarnese
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1 Gelbison
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1 Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1 Sarnese
06 Sept
Sarnese
2 : 1 Budoni Calcio
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Ossese
2 : 2 Sarnese
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1 Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1 Sarnese
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0 Sarnese
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2 Sarnese
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Asti Calcio 2
Chisola 0
Ligorna 1
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 3
Sestri Levante 0
Tau 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
SCD Progresso 1
Pavia 2
Sant'Angelo 0
Prato 2
Montevarchi 1
Correggese 2
Imolese 1
Sondrio 1
Breno 0
Folgore Caratese 2
Club Milano 3
AC Milan U23 2
Varesina 3
Brusaporto 0
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Chievo 0
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Vigasio 2
Cjarlins Muzane 1
Brian Lignano 2
Luparense FC 0
Mestre 1
Fossombrone 0
Ancona 1
Foligno 0
Atletico Ascoli 2
Orvietana 2
Siena 0
Follonica Gavorrano 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Termoli 0
Albalonga 2
Aquila Calcio 1
Grosseto 0
Unipomezia 1
Trastevere Calcio 2
Budoni Calcio 0
Martina Calcio 3
Sarnese 1
Ferrandina 2
Francavilla 3
A.C. Savoia 2
Paganese 1
Citta di Fasano 3
Gravina 0
Nocerina 4
Gelbison 2
Sambiase 0
Reggina 1
Castrumfavara 3
Igea Virtus 1
Enna 0
Sancataldese 2
1/16-finals
Asti Calcio 3
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 0
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
Pavia 1
Prato 1
Correggese 4
Sondrio 0
Club Milano 3
Varesina 4
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Brian Lignano 0
Mestre 1
Ancona 1
Atletico Ascoli 0
Orvietana 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Albalonga 1
Unipomezia 3
Trastevere Calcio 1
Martina Calcio 1
Francavilla 2
A.C. Savoia 3
Citta di Fasano 4
Nocerina 3
Reggina 2
Castrumfavara 3
Sancataldese 2
1/8-finals
Asti Calcio 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 0
Correggese 1
Club Milano 1
Varesina 0
Este 1
Mestre 2
Ancona 2
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 0
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 3
Citta di Fasano 2
Nocerina 2
Castrumfavara 0
Quarter-finals
Pistoiese 2
Correggese 0
Club Milano 1
Mestre 0
Ancona 2
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 1
Nocerina 0
Semi-finals
Pistoiese 3
Club Milano 1
Ancona 2
Francavilla 1
Final
Pistoiese 3
Ancona 0
