Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Martina Calcio vs Sarnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Resouf S.
63' Event
D'Arcangelo F.
90' Event
Sorace A.

AI Match Summary

Martina Calcio in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Martina Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Martina Calcio
20%
Draws
44%
Sarnese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sarnese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Martina Calcio lately — more wins on the board than Sarnese.
  • Model gives Martina Calcio a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Martina Calcio have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Martina Calcio Clean Sheet 15%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Martina Calcio Sarnese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 11
Draws 5 12
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.63 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Sarnese
3:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Martina Calcio vs Sarnese
3:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Martina Calcio
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Martina Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Resouf S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader D'Arcangelo F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sarnese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Martina Calcio 41 / 100
Sarnese 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Martina Calcio Sarnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Martina Calcio found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 3.33 goals per match.

Sarnese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Martina Calcio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Martina Calcio VS Sarnese
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Martina Calcio

(Home)
27 Sept
A.C.D. Nardo
0 : 3
Martina Calcio
20 Sept
Martina Calcio
1 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
16 Sept
Real Normanna
1 : 2
Martina Calcio
13 Sept
Martina Calcio
2 : 0
Real Forio 2014
06 Sept
Turris
4 : 3
Martina Calcio
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Sarnese

(Away)
27 Sept
Ossese
2 : 2
Sarnese
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1
Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Sarnese
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)