Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Martina Calcio vs Sarnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Resouf S.
63' Event
D'Arcangelo F.
90' Event
Sorace A.

AI Match Summary

Martina Calcio in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Martina Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Martina Calcio
20%
Draws
36%
Sarnese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Martina Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Martina Calcio lately — more wins on the board than Sarnese.
  • Model gives Martina Calcio a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Martina Calcio have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Martina Calcio Clean Sheet 68%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Martina Calcio Sarnese
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 15 8
Draws 6 13
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Martina Calcio vs Sarnese
3:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Martina Calcio vs Sarnese
3:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Martina Calcio
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Martina Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Resouf S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader D'Arcangelo F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Sarnese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Martina Calcio 50 / 100
Sarnese 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Martina Calcio Sarnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.33 goals per match.

Martina Calcio found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

Sarnese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Martina Calcio stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Martina Calcio VS Sarnese
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Martina Calcio

(Home)
17 May
Martina Calcio
0 : 1
Paganese
10 May
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
A.C.D. Nardo
03 May
SS Nola 1925
2 : 1
Martina Calcio
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Citta di Fasano
1 : 0
Martina Calcio
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Sarnese

(Away)
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0
Sarnese
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1
Pompei
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2
Sarnese
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2
Francavilla
19 Apr
Fidelis Andria
2 : 1
Sarnese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)