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Matelica vs Fabriano Cerreto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Matelica
30%
Draws
6%
Fabriano Cerreto
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Matelica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Matelica lately — more wins on the board than Fabriano Cerreto.
  • Win probability leans Matelica's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Matelica Clean Sheet 20%
Fabriano Cerreto Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matelica Fabriano Cerreto
Matches Played 42 30
Wins 21 3
Draws 10 5
Losses 11 22
Goals Scored 1.71 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.21 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Matelica vs Fabriano Cerreto
1:1
Nov 1, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Fabriano Cerreto vs Matelica
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matelica 85 / 100
Fabriano Cerreto 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matelica Fabriano Cerreto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matelica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Matelica scored in 81% of their last 42 outings.

Defensive concern: Fabriano Cerreto conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Matelica remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Matelica VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Matelica

(Home)
26 May
Renate
1 : 1
Matelica
23 May
Matelica
1 : 1
Renate
19 May
Cesena
2 : 3
Matelica
09 May
Matelica
3 : 1
Sambenedettese
02 May
Matelica
3 : 0
Imolese
Page 1 of 9

Fabriano Cerreto

(Away)
05 May
Fabriano Cerreto
1 : 1
Nerostellati Pratola
29 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
3 : 2
Fabriano Cerreto
22 Apr
Fabriano Cerreto
1 : 3
Sangiustese
15 Apr
Vis Pesaro
3 : 0
Fabriano Cerreto
08 Apr
Fabriano Cerreto
1 : 2
Monticelli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vis Pesaro 34 23 4 7 61:29 73
2 Matelica 34 22 5 7 66:28 71
3 Avezzano 34 16 14 4 51:26 62
4 Pineto 34 15 12 7 53:41 57
5 Aquila Calcio 34 15 10 9 57:40 55
6 ASD Francavilla 34 14 11 9 47:38 53
7 San Marino Calcio 34 15 6 13 45:35 51
8 Vastese 34 15 6 13 55:50 51
9 Sangiustese 34 13 9 12 39:41 48
10 Campobasso 34 13 10 11 41:40 45
11 Castelfidardo 34 12 8 14 43:54 44
12 Recanatese 34 12 7 15 47:47 43
13 Agnonese 34 11 8 15 34:35 41
14 Notaresco Calcio 34 11 7 16 42:51 40
15 Jesina 34 8 10 16 32:46 34
16 Monticelli 34 5 15 14 25:45 30
17 Fabriano Cerreto 34 5 5 24 29:69 20
18 Nerostellati Pratola 34 3 9 22 19:71 18
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 (Play Offs)