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Matera vs Gallipoli

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
de Nova I.
71' Event
Thiam S.
81' Event
Benvenga A.

AI Match Summary

Gallipoli in this Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gallipoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Matera
35%
Draws
13%
Gallipoli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Matera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Matera have won more games recently than Gallipoli.
  • Model gives Matera a 52% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Matera Clean Sheet 68%
Gallipoli Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matera Gallipoli
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 7
Draws 10 7
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.45 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Gallipoli
1:2
Oct 7, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Gallipoli vs Matera
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matera Compare

Top Goalscorer de Nova I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Gallipoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiam S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Benvenga A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matera 95 / 100
Gallipoli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matera Gallipoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matera Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matera scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Gallipoli let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Matera stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Matera VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Matera

(Home)
04 May
Matera
2 : 2
Nocerina
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4
Matera
17 Apr
Matera
3 : 1
Angri
13 Apr
Matera
2 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2
Matera
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Gallipoli

(Away)
12 May
Angri
2 : 0
Gallipoli
05 May
Martina Calcio
1 : 1
Gallipoli
28 Apr
Gallipoli
1 : 1
Angri
21 Apr
Altamura
2 : 1
Gallipoli
14 Apr
Gallipoli
0 : 3
Gravina
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Altamura 34 21 9 4 51:23 72
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 12 4 51:23 66
3 A.C.D. Nardo 34 20 5 9 53:24 65
4 Fidelis Andria 34 17 10 7 58:32 61
5 Casarano 34 15 10 9 45:32 55
6 Matera 34 15 8 11 45:37 53
7 Paganese 34 12 9 13 42:43 45
8 Palmese 1914 34 13 7 14 45:52 45
9 Gelbison 34 11 10 13 41:37 43
10 Rotonda 34 11 9 14 36:36 42
11 Gravina 34 10 11 13 49:44 41
12 Manfredonia 34 9 15 10 28:38 41
13 Citta di Fasano 34 11 8 15 38:57 41
14 Angri 34 10 9 15 35:52 39
15 Gallipoli 34 8 9 17 27:49 33
16 Barletta 34 6 12 16 30:45 30
17 Bitonto 34 7 9 18 22:45 30
18 Santa Maria Cilento 34 5 10 19 22:55 25
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 (Play Out)