Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Matlock vs Derby

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

79' Event
Ravenhill L.
90' Event
Hawkins H.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Matlock
15%
Draws
20%
Derby
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Matlock

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Derby lately — more wins on the board than Matlock.
  • Win probability leans Matlock's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Derby have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 52.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Matlock Clean Sheet 20%
Derby Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matlock Derby
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 8 3
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.83 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 2.35 1.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Matlock vs Derby
1:1
Jul 12, 2024 Club Friendly
Matlock vs Derby
0:3
Jul 8, 2023 Club Friendly
Matlock vs Derby
0:2
Jul 3, 2014 Club Friendly
Matlock vs Derby
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matlock Compare

Top Goalscorer Ravenhill L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.81
Avg xA / game 1.18

Derby Compare

Top Goalscorer Hawkins H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.68

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matlock 85 / 100
Derby 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matlock Derby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matlock Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matlock's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Derby conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Matlock went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Matlock VS Derby
3.2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.2 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
80% Over 2.5 63%
80% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Matlock

(Home)
12 Sept
Matlock
5 : 1
Nuneaton
29 Aug
Lichfield City
0 : 5
Matlock
25 Jul
Carlton Town
1 : 4
Matlock
18 Jul
Matlock
1 : 1
Rotherham
14 Jul
Matlock
1 : 3
Quorn
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Derby

(Away)
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2
Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1
West Brom
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0
Derby
01 Sept
Portsmouth
0 : 2
Derby
29 Aug
Derby
0 : 3
Swansea
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