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Matonense vs Marilia

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2023
Matonense Logo

Matonense

0 - 3
FT
Marilia Logo

Marilia

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Marilia in this Paulista A3 2023 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marilia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Matonense
20%
Draws
29%
Marilia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Matonense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Matonense haven't matched Marilia's recent run of results.
  • Matonense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Paulista A3 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Marilia here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Matonense Clean Sheet 20%
Marilia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matonense Marilia
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 8 15
Draws 3 7
Losses 20 7
Goals Scored 1.42 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.97 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.34 0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2024 Paulista A3
Matonense vs Marilia
0:6
Apr 16, 2023 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Matonense
1:0
Mar 26, 2023 Paulista A3
Matonense vs Marilia
0:3
Mar 4, 2023 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Matonense
2:1
Mar 20, 2022 Paulista A3
Matonense vs Marilia
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matonense 85 / 100
Marilia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matonense Marilia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Matonense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Marilia registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Matonense scored in 58% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Matonense VS Marilia
3.25 Goals Scored 0.71
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.43
100% Over 1.5 57%
63% Over 2.5 43%
38% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Matonense

(Home)
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Matonense
0 : 0
Assisense
27 Jun
Assisense
0 : 1
Matonense
20 Jun
Matonense
2 : 1
Mogi Mirim
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Marilia

(Away)
01 Aug
Bandeirante
3 : 1
Marilia
26 Jul
Linense
3 : 1
Marilia
17 Jul
Marilia
1 : 0
Gremio Prudente
26 Apr
Portuguesa Santista
2 : 0
Marilia
22 Apr
Marilia
2 : 2
Portuguesa Santista
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Capivariano 6 4 1 1 11:8 13
2 EC Sao Bernardo 6 3 1 2 9:4 10
3 Marilia 6 2 1 3 5:6 7
4 Matonense 6 1 1 4 5:12 4
Promotion - Paulista A3 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gremio Prudente 6 2 3 1 8:7 9
2 Sao Jose EC 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
3 Desportivo 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
4 Uniao Suzano 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
Promotion - Paulista A3 2023 (Play Offs)