Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Sunpro Alwin

Matsumoto Yamaga

Wed, Apr 29, 2026

1 - 2

09:00 AM

Iwata

Our Tip

Match Events

32'

Ogawa D.

42'

Saso K.

Assist: Murakoshi K.

45'

Sub

Aida Y. In: Uemura H.

Out: Aida Y.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Iwata in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Iwata.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%

Matsumoto Yamaga

11%

Draws

Iwata

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Matsumoto Yamaga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Iwata have won more games recently than Matsumoto Yamaga.
Win probability leans Matsumoto Yamaga's way, sitting at 80%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Iwata have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%

Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 68%

Iwata Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Matsumoto Yamaga	Iwata
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	11	15
Draws	1	2
Losses	18	15
Goals Scored	1.38	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 J2/J3 League

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwata

Possession: 50% - 46% Cards: 3 - 0

1:2

Feb 21, 2026 J2/J3 League

Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga

Possession: 59% - 52% Cards: 0 - 1

1:2

Jun 1, 2022 Emperors Cup

Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga

Possession: 51% - 47% Cards: 2 - 2

5:2

Sep 4, 2021 J2 League

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Iwata

Possession: 45% - 46% Cards: 2 - 1

0:4

Apr 10, 2021 J2 League

Iwata vs Matsumoto Yamaga

Possession: 44% - 53% Cards: 3 - 1

4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matsumoto Yamaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Saso K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Iwata Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matsumoto Yamaga 86 / 100

Iwata 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Matsumoto Yamaga Iwata

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAT Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

Matsumoto Yamaga scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Iwata let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Away concern: Iwata has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Matsumoto Yamaga VS Iwata

1.38 Goals Scored 1.38

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5

63% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15